Trade Strategy 12.19.25

Posted on by December 18, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: CPI Catalyst | Wild Ryde Clyde 2.0

Cycle Day 2 showed up exactly on brand today — snaps, traps, fulfilled objectives… then immediately started messing with people’s emotions. Textbook.

🌅 CPI: The Market Got an Early Christmas Gift

Before the opening bell even finished its coffee, CPI hit the tape:

  • Headline CPI YoY: 2.7% (beat vs 3.1% forecast)

  • Core CPI YoY: 2.6% (lowest read since March 2021)

Translation for traders, not economists:

  • Inflation pressure eased ✔️

  • Rate cut odds ticked higher ✔️

  • Bulls received permission to press ✔️

Even the mainstream narrative had to tap out and admit progress. When CNN waves the white flag, you know the number mattered.

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.18.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: “Triple Witching” OPEX

Alright Bulls & Bears… welcome to the quarterly expiry rodeo, where liquidity gets weird, charts get dramatic, and market makers start doing algebra in public.

What’s on deck: a record ~$7.1T in U.S. options notional set to expire on Friday, December 19, 2025—a true “witching hour” setup that tends to juice volume and amplify late-day swings. Citadel Securities+1

Notional breakdown (Goldman-reported framing, widely echoed):

  • S&P 500 index-linked exposure: ~$5T

  • Single-name equity options: ~$880B

  • Total: ~$7.1T Citadel Securities+1

Why this matters (aka: why your P/L might start speaking in tongues)

We’re in a gamma-heavy environment, which means dealer hedging flows can turn price into a pinball—especially into the close when positions get rolled, exercised, or vaporized. Citadel Securities specifically flags the size of this expiry as a volatility risk point and notes it can reduce some of the market’s “long gamma” cushion afterward. Citadel Securities

Also: the “% of market cap” math depends on which Russell 3000 market-cap snapshot you’re using. For context, FTSE Russell reported Russell 3000 market cap around $58.4T (2025 rank-day framework), which puts $7.1T in the neighborhood of low double-digit % of the broad market. LSEG

JAR (Just a Reminder)… it’s Fryday.

CAPITAL PRESERVATION DAY.

Translation: today isn’t about being a hero — it’s about keeping your armor intact.
If the tape starts teleporting into the close, that’s not “opportunity”… that’s OPEX doing OPEX things.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6820+-, initially targets 6845 – 6860 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6820+-, initially targets 6795 – 6775 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6850    PVA Low Edge = 6821         Prior POC = 6829

   ESH

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Gap, Trap, and a Whole Lot of Meh

CPI delivered the gap up, and fade-traders said “thank you very much.” Early buyer confidence had all the swagger… right up until it didn’t. Control flipped quickly, and before anyone could settle in, the tape morphed back into Wild Ryde Clyde 2.0 — less conviction, more cardio.

This was textbook Cycle Day 2 behavior:
a disciplined, baseline tennis match. Clean volleys. Defined ranges. No reckless charges to the net. Bulls and Bears traded shots with precision, neither side committing a fatal unforced error. Not exciting. Not disastrous. Just deliberate positioning.

Why the restraint?
Because everyone knew what was coming next.

This session wasn’t about winning the day — it was about surviving into Fryday’s OPEX Triple Play with ammo intact and emotions under control.

In other words:
warm-ups complete… the main event awaits.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3:Triple Witching — Capital Preservation Under Fire

This is it.
Final set. Lights on. Crowd loud. Risk managers pacing.

Cycle Day 3 doesn’t invite chaos — it schedules it.

As the closing bell approaches, the market stops pretending to be rational and starts doing what OPEX gamma math demands. Multi-trillion-dollar positions are unwound, rolled, pinned, or forcibly reconciled. Price is no longer discovery… it’s position management with consequences.

The Battlefield Reality

  • Gamma hedging accelerates into the final hours

  • Dealers are forced to chase price, not predict it

  • Liquidity pockets appear… then vanish

  • Levels that “should hold” suddenly don’t

  • Rips and drops happen without narrative permission

This is where traders confuse movement with opportunity — and that’s how Capital Preservation gets shot in the crossfire.

The Proper Read

This isn’t a directional day.
This is a survival day.

Think:

  • Pin attempts near major strikes

  • Late-day air pockets as hedges come off

  • Violent mean reversion when flows exhaust

  • False breakouts designed to harvest emotional capital

If you’re pressing size today, you’re not trading edge —
you’re donating liquidity to the exit process.

JAR (Just A Reminder)

It’s Friday.
It’s OPEX.
It’s Cycle Day 3.

Capital Preservation isn’t defensive — it’s dominant.
You don’t win Triple Witching by conquering territory.
You win by walking off the battlefield intact while others limp.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25190+-, initially targets 25335– 25410 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 25190+-, initially targets 25000 – 25950 zone.

PVA High Edge = 25341     PVA Low Edge = 25188         Prior POC = 25260

NQH 

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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