Cycle Day 1 — “Thin to Win… Until It Wasn’t”
The final trading session of 2025 delivered exactly what a normal Cycle Day 1 is contractually obligated to deliver:
➡️ Early decline
➡️ Measured targets hit
➡️ Liquidity so thin it squeaked
The Average Decline Target @ 6922.25 was fulfilled early, checking the CD1 box with professional efficiency. No drama. No heroics. Just business being handled.
Midday action devolved into classic holiday tape behavior — light participation, mechanical rotations, and traders politely asking the market “Are you still there?”
Meanwhile, the real adult in the room was the JPM Collar Roll:
-
Expiring upside strikes safely out of the way
-
New March positioning quietly getting stitched together
-
HIRO flows flashing briefly, reminding everyone who actually moves size
This wasn’t a “rip your face off” session — it was inventory management, window dressing, and positioning chess ahead of January.
Late-day chatter teased a jam or slam, but the answer arrived right on schedule:
-
MOC Sell Imbalance: ~$2.2B
-
Gravity wins.
-
🎰 The House, once again, collects.
And just like that…
The Final Countdown reached zero.
No fireworks.
No collapse.
Just a disciplined fade into the closing bell — the market equivalent of turning off the lights and locking the door.
2025 is officially in the books.
Capital preserved. Lessons learned. Scars earned.
See you Monday… refreshed, focused, and ready for Cycle Day 2. 💪