Trade Strategy 1.5.26

Posted on by January 5, 2026

S&P 500 (ES)

Before we dive into the nitty-gritty, we’d like to extend a very warm Happy New Year and welcome to 2026! 🎉

This year marks the beginning of PTG’s 13th year of delivering world-class professional trading education and institutional-grade tools to traders across the globe.

That longevity isn’t an accident.

It’s the direct result of your continued trust and support—support that has allowed PTG to stay true to its multi-point mission: educating traders, sharpening execution, and reinforcing the discipline required to survive (and thrive) in ever-changing markets.

Looking ahead, 2026 isn’t just a new year—it’s a new chapter.

Expect new ventures… or better yet, new adventures—including the launch of a Trader Funding Program and strategic collaborations with top-tier futures brokers, designed to offer unique trading opportunities and innovative programs for our community.

Bottom line?

2026 is shaping up to be an exciting year—and we’re just getting started.

Let’s get to work. 🚀

🎄 Cycle Day 3 Focus — Santa Missed the Window, Gravity Took Over

The Santa Rally appears to have missed its Time & Price appointment — the one Fibonacci pundits whisper about like it’s the market’s holy grail. Instead of a festive lift-off, Santa’s sleigh found black ice and is now sliding downhill with conviction.

At this point, it’s less jingle bells and more full-throttle gravity, accelerating faster than Lindsey Vonn on a peak-condition St. Moritz Super‑G run.

No heroic retracement.
No magical Fib confluence save.
Just speed, slope, and the cold realization that Cycle Day 3 does not care about seasonal expectations.

In short:
🎅 Santa aimed for the chimney…
📉 hit the roof…
⛷️ and is currently racing downhill in a tuck, praying for a base to form before the next gate.

Scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

🟢 Bull Case

There is still time on the clock, but the bulls need to stop sliding before they even think about heroics.

Phase 1 — Hold the Line

  • 6875–6880 is the last defensible mountain shelf.

  • Bulls must step back in with authority, not passive bids or sympathy buying.

  • Failure here turns the slope back into a ski run… and we’ve seen that movie already.

Phase 2 — Regain Footing

  • Successful defense opens the door to a pressure build.

  • Shorts begin to feel altitude sickness as downside follow-through fails.

Phase 3 — Squeeze Sequence

  • Upside reclaim targets stack cleanly:

    • 6915

    • 6925

    • 6935 ← the lost ledge

  • A reclaim of 6935 shifts this from “damage control” to structural repair.

Bottom Line (PTG Style):
No defense = no squeeze.
No squeeze = no summit.
But if 6875–6880 holds, the bulls have a legitimate path back up the mountain, not just a hopeful rope toss. 🧗‍♂️📈

  • Hold north of 6900 +- 5 pts targets 6915…6925…6935

🔴 Bear Case

This is where gravity stops negotiating.

Phase 1 — Support Failure

  • 6880–6875 is no longer a floor — it becomes trapdoor flooring.

  • Weak bounces and lack of responsive buying signal buyer exhaustion, not patience.

Phase 2 — Weekly Low Retest

  • Price slides back to 6866.75 (weekly low).

  • This is the last speed check before the slope steepens.

  • A break and hold below confirms bears are fully in control of terrain.

Phase 3 — The Plummet
Once acceptance sets in below the weekly low, downside targets open in sequence:

  • 6850 — first liquidation pocket

  • 6835 — air gap zone

  • 6825 — structural damage territory

At this stage, rallies are short-covering speed bumps, not trend reversals.

Bottom Line (PTG Style):
Lose 6875, fail to reclaim it quickly, and the market isn’t falling — it’s sliding downhill with intent.
Below the weekly low, bears don’t need news… they just need gravity. 🐻❄️📉

  • Hold south of 6900 +- 5 pts targets 6880…6875…6865

PVA High Edge = 6906    PVA Low Edge = 6877         Prior POC = 6891

⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

   ESH

 

Nasdaq (NQ)

NQ has officially slipped below the 50, 13, and 5 daily moving averages — and with that, the Bears are writing the opening chapter of the New Year’s tape 🐻✍️

This is no longer a “Santa will save us” situation.
This is Cycle Day 3 — consequences edition.

Battlefield Read:

  • ❄️ Terrain: Slippery, icy, and unforgiving

  • 🐻 Bears: Dug in, high ground secured, pressing advantage

  • 🐂 Bulls: Helmet off… staring at it… deciding whether to put it back on

Bull Mandate (No Sugarcoating):
Bulls need to put on their BIG BOY pants and reclaim control, or risk letting this slide morph into further downside momentum. Cycle Day 3 does not reward hope — it rewards execution.

Bottom Line:
If bulls don’t step up soon, this New Year narrative stays bearish — and Santa’s sleigh has officially been repossessed

🎯 Cycle Day 3 Focus

Scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

🟢 Bull Case

  • Hold north of 25395 +- 10 pts targets 25498…25517…25535

🔴 Bear Case

  • Hold south of 25395 +- 10 pts targets 25255…25202…25146

PVA High Edge = 25533    PVA Low Edge = 25269         Prior POC = 25389

⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

NQH 

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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