Monday’s progressive selling has continued into the overnight session reaching 2071 projected Low of Day outlined on prior Daily Trade Strategy 06.08.15. Having extended below prior low (2076.25) to Cycle Decline Target (2071.75), price has sprung back up to the prior low. Price will need to convert (stay above) this level during cash session to rebound initially targeting 2083.00.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normally we would be expecting a decline to find a “secure low”…Yesterday’s decline on CD3 was deep enough to reach Average Cycle Decline Target (2071.75)…As long as this level is not violated and converted during cash session, this cycle’s rally can begin at any time.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2091.00 based upon average rally; Possible LOD = 2065.50 based upon average violation of CD3 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: IF price can hold above ONL (2068.75) and subsequently convert PL (2076.25) during cash session, THEN there is a 55% chance of rallying with initial target 2083.00. IF price can convert this level, then odds increase (68%) of reaching average cycle target 2091.00.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PL (2076.25) and subsequent violation of ONL (2068.75) increases odds (48%) of forced margin selling targeting 2065.50 Target Master Range Breakdown Level and CD1 Low Violation Target. Further violation of this level measures deep extreme zone (2061.50 – 2055.50).
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee