🔴 Cycle Day 1 – Liquidation With Intent
From the open, rhythm was clear:
Neutral bias → Failure → Acceleration lower.
The Open Range Long was a one-and-done stop out, and that was the first tell.
No early bid sponsorship. No responsive bounce.
From there:
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CD1 Average Decline Targets ✔️
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Penetration + Money Box zone tested ✔️
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No DLMB response ✔️
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Statistical Extremes activated ✔️
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10-Day ATR Bear Targets fulfilled ✔️
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Prior Low lost and not reclaimed ✔️
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$4B MOC Sell Imbalance ✔️
That’s not random weakness.
That’s organized liquidation.
🔻 The Character of the Day
This was not rotational.
This was long liquidation momentum that never got properly absorbed.
When DLMB doesn’t respond on CD1, it tells you something important:
This wasn’t dip buying opportunity.
It was inventory clearing.
Late-session low + aggressive sell imbalance into the close suggests:
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Split-over downside pressure possible
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CPI catalyst sitting directly in front of it
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Bears holding control into settlement
And that 6881 50% reference? That level mattered. Once we lived below it, sellers pressed.
🧠 Psychology Layer (Room Gold Today)
Ram nailed it:
“Be the best loser and keep losses small.”
Bruce:
“I need intensive psychology.”
That’s trading. CD1 exposes impatience.
Today rewarded discipline and punished anticipation.
🎯 Heading Into FRYday (CPI On Deck)
Late CD1 low + heavy MOC sell imbalance =
Energy still unresolved.
If CPI comes hot → continuation scenario.
If CPI disappoints bears → violent squeeze potential.
But the key:
Structure says sellers finished strong.