🎯 Cycle Day 1 Scenarios
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Maintain Control
Acceptance above 6885 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 6910
• 6925
• 6940
If buyers could defend the pivot, continuation higher remained the path of least resistance.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance below 6885 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 6865
• 6855
• 6835
Once price loses the pivot, the auction typically rotates lower to find new liquidity pockets.
⚡ Early Trade — Precision Strike
The 6835 level — highlighted in the DTS briefing — became the first major battleground.
Price swept the overnight lows and tagged the zone almost to the tick.
6835 handle tagged and reversed.
Multiple independent models had the same support area:
• PTG
• Manny’s 6832–6837 support zone
• HVN structure in the area
When multiple smart models converge, the probability of reaction increases.
The result?
Textbook bounce.
Cue the chatroom humor…
🏆 PTG David Kewpie Award Winner LOLOLOL
📉 Midday Pressure
The bounce was temporary.
Cycle Day 1 downside projections continued to pull price lower.
Projected Decline Zone:
6826 – 6820
Once that zone was fulfilled, the auction continued to seek deeper liquidity.
Next levels:
• 6813 — tagged
• 6808
Meanwhile the Open Range Breakout strategy found its momentum in Crude Oil, while ES and NQ spent most of the session grinding through rotational structure.
🧨 Afternoon Flush
Momentum eventually pushed the market to the next key zone:
6795 → 6775
The 6775 support marker became the late-day defensive line.
Bulls stepped in aggressively at the 6776 handle, establishing what appears to be the Cycle Day 1 low.
🚀 Late Day Rip
Once the market stabilized, buyers began lifting offers back toward the next control zone.
Key resistance:
6800 – 6805
When that zone began to clear, buyers regained command and control, pushing price sharply higher.
But the real accelerant?
MOC Buy Imbalance: $4.7 Billion
That imbalance helped fuel the late-day rip back toward the 6825 area, ultimately bringing price back toward Midpoint VWAP.
Classic late-day position squaring.
📊 Key Levels from the Session
High probability reaction zones
Support tested:
• 6835
• 6826–6820
• 6813
• 6795
• 6776 Cycle Day 1 Low
Resistance zones:
• 6800 – 6805
• 6825
🧠 Market Takeaway
Today was a pure Cycle Day 1 inventory washout session.
We saw:
• Mechanical levels respected
• Structured downside rotations
• A late-day liquidity driven rally
Nothing emotional.
Nothing random.
Just the auction doing what auctions do — searching for price acceptance.
🍟 On Deck
Capital Preservation FRYday
Professional traders know the rule.
You don’t need to swing for the fences every day.
Sometimes the best trade is simply protecting capital and letting the next cycle come to you.
See everyone in the morning.
Stay disciplined.
Stay patient.
And as always…
Stay Aligned My Friends.