Economy
U.S. job growth likely cooled a bit in June after reaching a five-month high, but still-healthy hiring could suggest the labor market is strong enough to support an earlier Fed rate hike. Economists estimate that non-farm payrolls rose 230,000 last month after May’s 280,000 jump, the largest gain since December. The unemployment rate is seen dropping one-tenth of a percentage point to 5.4%, not far from the 5.0%-5.2% range most Fed officials consider consistent with full employment.
Trading
Prices back n filled during yesterday’s trade holding above key 2060 level. This Cycle is unfolding “normally” with secure low established on CD1 with higher consolidation on CD2. Price has reached and exceeded Average Cycle Target (2068.75), as such, residual bullish momentum could push price higher…Above 2075 handle places pressure on existing shorts…Violation and conversion of 2066 handles keeps control in hands of “da bears”.
Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2085.25 based upon penetration of CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2056 based upon average range decline on CD3.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2077.50), THEN there is a 40% chance of extending to 2079.50 – 2082.25 STATX Zone. Above this zones measures 2085.25 Penetration Target.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2077.50) and subsequent violation and conversion of 2066 handle targets 2063.00 – 2061.00 Three-Day Central Pivot Zone. Below this zone is 2058 – 2056 High Volume Node Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee