S&P 500 (ES)
****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings
We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos
Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP
🔥 Cycle Day 3 — Possible Iran Deal Keeps the “BTFD Crowd Optimistic —3 Day Cycle Target Tagged!
Unconfirmed reports of a possible Iran deal gave the BTFD crowd just enough fuel to absorb sellers and push the tape higher — ultimately fulfilling the 3-Day Cycle Price Objective right on schedule.
And once again…
The market did what strong markets tend to do:
Refuse weakness.
Punish hesitation.
Force late money to chase.
💰 The Dominant Script Remains: BTFD
The Buy-The-Dip strategy remains firmly intact.
Not emotional.
Not dramatic.
Just persistent institutional behavior.
Every shallow retracement continues attracting buyers almost immediately.
That matters because strong markets typically:
- Refuse to stay down
- Trap aggressive shorts
- Force underinvested participants to chase strength higher
📊 Why Cycle Day 3 Still Matters
Historically, a Positive 3-Day Cycle carries a:
🚀 92.68% Performance Rate
Even with:
- volatility spikes
- geopolitical tension
- overnight headline roulette
- stretched sentiment
…the probabilities continue holding firm.
The market has not shown meaningful evidence of distribution yet.
🛰️ PTG Tactical View
Current posture remains:
✅ Trend intact
✅ Momentum intact
✅ Dip-buying behavior intact
✅ Shorts still vulnerable
✅ Big Tech leadership still driving the tape
Until proven otherwise:
The trend remains guilty until proven innocent.
Stay disciplined.
Stay aligned with price.
Respect momentum until momentum says otherwise.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance above 7465 ±5
If buyers defend value north of this pivot, upside continuation remains viable.
🎯 Initial Upside Objectives
- 7475
- 7485
- 7495
Expectations:
- Orderly trade
- Controlled tempo
- Clean inventory
- Trend continuation
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance below 7465 ±5
Failure to hold the pivot opens the door for rotation and balance repair.
🎯 Initial Downside Objectives
- 7455
- 7445
- 7435
Expectations:
- Increased two-sided trade
- Inventory correction
- Balance development
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 7478
PVA Low Edge: 7425
Prior POC: 7465
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
Nasdaq (NQ)
🔥 Cycle Day 3 — Tech Still Driving the Bus
“As goes the Nasdaq…so goes the market.” And right now, that’s not just a saying—it’s the playbook.
With the Tech sector doing the heavy lifting and hovering near all-time highs, this isn’t the time to get cute or contrarian. When the generals are marching, you don’t fade the army—you study the cadence. The next directional move—continuation or rejection—will come from here.
Today isn’t about prediction.
It’s about structure.
Strip everything else away and focus on one thing:
🎯 Acceptance vs. Rejection
Are buyers accepting higher prices…or are they getting shut down?
That’s the tell.
Because markets don’t move on opinions—they move on commitment.
And Cycle Day 3? That’s where the mask comes off.
🚫 Tourists chase headlines
✅ Participants move price
Watch where value builds.
Watch how price behaves at the edges.
And most importantly…
Watch who shows up.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Defend Control
Acceptance above 29420 ±10 keeps buyers in the driver’s seat and signals continuation higher.
If buyers maintain structure, expect rotation toward upside imbalances:
🎯 Initial Upside Objectives
- 29475
- 29520
- 29555
Acceptance above these levels opens the door for:
• Range Expansion
• Higher Value Development
• Momentum Building
But remember…
No defense = No trend.
Higher prices must be earned… and defended.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance below 29420 ±10 shifts control back to sellers and signals inventory correction.
Failure to hold structure invites rotation back into prior value:
🎯 Initial Downside Objectives
- 29385
- 29335
- 29290
If sellers gain traction, expect responsive buyers to step in and test conviction below.
This is where structure gets decided… not predicted.
📊 Key Structural Reference Levels
These are magnets — not forecasts.
• PVA High Edge: 29403
• PVA Low Edge: 29139
• Prior POC: 29224
These zones represent fair value negotiation —
Where the auction typically:
• Slows
• Rotates
• Decides
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQ
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN