While U.S. futures are pointing higher, stocks may continue to retest January’s lows today, as traders await retail sales and consumer sentiment figures. Equities were rocked Thursday as Fed Chair Janet Yellen returned to Congress, stressing that the central bank was not on a “preset” path to return policy to “normal” and “wouldn’t take negative rates off the table.” Whether the share plunge was due to central bank mistrust, low oil prices, health of the global economy or other common story lines, one thing is clear – investors are still looking for cover.
Oil is rebounding from the lowest level in more than 12 years as speculation swirls over whether producers will act to bolster the market. “Prices are not appropriate, I won’t say for the majority only, but for all producers,” UAE Energy Minister Al Mazrouei declared, highlighting that suppliers won’t make cuts unless there is complete cooperation. Despite the move higher, crude is still poised for a second weekly drop due to brimming inventories and forecasts that prices will remain low until the second half of the year. Oil futures +4.9% to $27.50/bbl.
In Asia, Japan -4.8% to 14953. Hong Kong -1.2% to 18320. China closed. India +0.2% to 22986.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.8%. Paris +1.5%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +1%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude +4.9% to $27.50. Gold -0.5% to $1242.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 1.69%
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
PTG Trading
S&P held above 1803 key support in prior session, staving off growling bears trying to force a price break…Overnight trade has price higher trading above Cycle Day 1 Low, which qualifies this as a Positive 3 Day Cycle.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Spill UP… Of key important now for the Bulls is to keep price above 1825.00 Central Pivot and close this week with a strong Friday performance.
NOTE: Markets are closed Monday 2.15.16 in observance of President’s Day in US.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 1862.60; LOD Range Projection = 1807.65; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 1788.53; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1859.00; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1838.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1841.00; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1904.50; 10 Day Average True Range = 39.85.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (1834.75), THEN initial upside objective is 1841.00 – 1842.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Strength above this zone further targets 1847.50 – 1852.75 STATX Zone…CD3 Max Penetration Level = 1859.00 with HOD Range Projection = 1862.60.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1843.75) opens door to corrective pullback initially targeting 1837.00 SPOT, followed by 1832.50; 1827.00; 1825.00.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN
