Trade Strategy 3.7.16

Markets

It looks like the bulls have gained the upper hand in the U.S. stock market, with shares advancing for their third straight week in a row, following an impressive jobs report on Friday that showed recent economic worries were overblown. The S&P 500 has now gained in 10 out of 15 sessions since its Feb. 11 low, and closed last week above its 100-day moving average for first time in 2016. But the question remains – where will equities go from here? Further gains are possible if the ECB expands its stimulus measures this week, but more upbeat U.S. data could bolster prospects for an upcoming rate hike from the Fed and weigh on shares.

In Asia, Japan -0.6% to 16911. Hong Kong -0.1% to 20159. China +0.8% to 2897. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London -1%. Paris -1%. Frankfurt -1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude +1.4% to $36.43. Gold +0.1% to $1271.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.90%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
 8:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
10:00 Labor market condition index
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
PTG Trading
S&P e-mini (ES) capped off a bullish cycle by marching non-stop to reach 2005.94 3 Day Cycle Target outlined in Scenario 1 in Prior DTS Report 3.4.16. Here is excerpt: “IF price clears and converts PH (1991.75), THEN upside projects 1995.25 – 1997.25 STATX Zone. Above this level targets 2005.94 3 Day Cycle Rally Target.”
Having satisfied the range target, price then fell back late in Friday’s session to close about midpoint of daily range. This setups up today’s expected decline (pullback) to relieve upside pressure and consolidate recent gains.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Expectation today is for normal pullback trade in search of this cycle’s new secure low support. Price remains above rising 3 Day Central Pivot Zone…It would take a violation and conversion below 1966 – 1968 to indicate initial sign of trend weakness.

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 2012.98; LOD Range Projection = 1968.52; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2025.31; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1952.72; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1966.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1986.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2005.94; 10 Day Average True Range = 27.73.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price holds 1986.50 3 Day Central Pivot THEN converts 1996.00 SPOT, price has potential to retest 2007.50 prior high.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert 1996.00 SPOT and subsequent violation of 1986.50 opens door to deeper decline / pullback to probe of new secure low. Levels to be mindful of for possible support are: 1984, 1980 – 1975 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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