Trade Strategy 3.30.16

Markets

World stocks are flying higher as investors welcomed Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s “cautious” stance on raising U.S. interest rates. In a speech Tuesday, Yellen said global and financial uncertainties posed risks to the domestic economy and justified a slower path for rate increases. “She totally contradicted the four Fed presidents who spoke last week, and any chance of the April rate hike suggested by them is over,” said Mark Matthews, head of research at Julius Baer. Her dovish position also helped propel Wall Street indexes to their highest closing levels of 2016.

In Asia, Japan -1.3% to 16879. Hong Kong +2.2% to 20803. China +2.8% to 3000. India +1.8% to 25339.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.7%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.7%. S&P +0.7%. Nasdaq +0.8%. Crude +1.7% to $38.93. Gold +0.2% to $1239.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.82%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $28B, 7-Year Note Auction
3:00 Farm Prices
PTG Trading

Markets were happy to hear the dovish tone from Fed Chair Janet Yellen during yesterday’s speech, given that other Fed Governors have inferred that rate hike could be as early as April. Fed Fund Futures are factoring in zero (0) probability of a hike in June…As such, the markets rallied higher to reach and slightly surpass 2056.68 3 Day Cycle Target.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Targets have been achieved, so this could make for an interesting trade…Momentum could indeed push price higher projection (2064.23)…Or simply fizzle-out and retreat back into prior days range. In either case, Bulls continue to dominate the trading landscape.

Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2064.23; LOD Range Projection = 2044.02; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2058.86; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 2007.51; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2019.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2031.00; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2056.68; 10 Day Average True Range = 17.48.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2048.00), THEN upside targets are 2056.68 (3 Day Cycle Target) and 2058.86 (CD2 Maximim Penetration Level)…BOTH ACHIEVED in overnight trade.

Scenario 2: IF price violates PH (2048.00) after clearing and converting in overnight trade, THEN this scenario sets up a potential reversal which would initially target 2044.02 (LOD Projection)…Weakness below this level opens trap door down to 2039.00 – 2034.25 Central Pivot Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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