Trade Strategy 4.11.16

Posted on by April 11, 2016

Markets

Earnings season for the first quarter is about to get underway, starting with Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) results after today’s market close. If Wall Street forecasts are to be believed, traders are bracing for a 7.9% plunge in Q1 profits, marking the steepest decline since the Great Recession. It’s part of a broader earnings erosion gripping U.S. companies due to the dramatic drop in oil prices, currency turmoil and slow growth across the globe.

In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 15751. Hong Kong +0.4% to 20441. China +1.6% to 3034. India +1.4% to 25022.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.7%. Frankfurt +1.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.6% to $39.49. Gold +0.6% to $1251.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.73%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
 No events scheduled
PTG Trading
Following an early gap higher to reach projected range high on Cycle Day 3, price reversed and traded progressively lower throughout the session. In over night trade price weakness extended lower to reach 2033.62, which is Cycle Day 1 projected Average Decline Target. Recent 3 Day Cycles have been unfolding near perfectly with price reversing at projected range level. Overall the S&P e-mini remains within a broader multi-day trading range between 2030 – 2070 handles.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Price has already achieved the Average Decline down to 2033.62, at which time a small rally has developed in overnight trade. Price will need to continue to trade above this low to qualify as “secure”. Trade above 2054 handle will open skylight for higher prices.

Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2054.02; LOD Range Projection = 2030.48; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2063.58; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2015.30; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2035.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2044.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2065.39; 10 Day Average True Range = 21.52.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2054.25), THEN initial upside objective is 2060 – 2062.50.

Scenario 2: Violation of ONL (2032.50) opens trap door down to 2026.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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