Trade Strategy 4.19.16

Markets

World shares are heading higher after oil prices stabilized and the Dow Jones closed above 18,000 for the first time since last July. Stocks seems to be getting a further lift from the ongoing first-quarter corporate earnings season. Analysts had forecast a pretty poor batch of results and many companies are managing to beat those expectations. The FTSE All-World equity index is up 0.7% to 268.9, its highest level since early December.

Oil prices have regained some ground as a result of an oil worker strike in Kuwait that has reduced output to 1.1M barrels per day from 2.8M. However, the gains may be short-lived. Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov told reporters the country is considering raising its production this year, and a level of 540M tonnes of crude is “quite realistic,” following the collapse of the Doha deal. Brent +1.6% to $43.63/bbl; WTI +1.6% to $40.41/bbl.

In Asia, Japan +3.7% to 16874. Hong Kong +1.3% to 21436. China +0.3% to 3042. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +2.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.8%. Crude +1.6% to $40.41. Gold +0.8% to $1244.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.78%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
PTG Trading
Gap down opening yesterday on the heals of “no freeze” failed agreement offered a tremendous buying opportunity for the Big Boys, as we have been opining that Mutual Funds are in “buy the dip” mode…and buy they did…Straight from the open bell there was nothing but aggressive bids and no supply, pushing price higher all session without a decent pullback. Shorts were stuck in a big way forcing them to buy ever higher.
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…recall last CD1 was relatively shallow as we characterized Cycle as very strong. This strength continues in the overnight with price trading above prior high (2088.75) and reaching 2098.34 CD1 Max Penetration Level. Bulls are squarely in control…It will take a reversal below prior high (2088.75) for first Sign of Weakness (SOW).
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2106.15; LOD Range Projection = 2077.10; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2098.34; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2052.00; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2068.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2076.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2099.36; 10 Day Average True Range = 21.40.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has exceeded PH (2088.75) in overnight trade to reach 2098.43 CD1 Max Penetration Level. Further strength in the cash session above this level targets 2106.15 – 2108.67.

Scenario 2: Failure to exceed 2098.34 and subsequent violation below 2093.00 opens door to test CD3 High (2088.75). Violation and conversion of this level represents first SOW which would target retracement down to 2081.75 – 2076.25 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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