Trade Strategy 5.11.16

Posted on by May 11, 2016

Markets

The dollar is stumbling again, succumbing to a bout of profit-taking as U.S. futures point to a fall of around a third of a percent on Wall Street. The move comes after Goldman Sachs called the greenback’s bottom (again), stating it “remains dollar bullish and thinks the trajectory is higher from here.” The U.S. Dollar Index -0.2% to 94.05, easing back from Tuesday’s two-week high of 94.15.

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 16579. Hong Kong -1.2% to 20007. China +0.2% to 2837. India -0.7% to 25597.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -1%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -1% to $44.23. Gold +0.8% to $1274.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.75%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $23B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
PTG Trading
Price did get the expected decline on Cycle Day 1 but it was during the overnight period and was relatively shallow. Cash Session open up with a Gap Higher (Open Auction Out of Range), which had plenty of buying energy to propel price higher throughout day as Trend Day structure was established with a hold above Initial Balance High. (1st Hour High).
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price rally in prior session reached the projected Cycle Target of 2079.50 and has since pulled back in overnight trade. Expectation for today will be for some “back n fill” type trade to absorb recent gains. Initial Support is marked at 2068.25 Central Pivot, with layers of potential buy response support should price experience a deeper pullback.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2089.95; LOD Range Projection = 2058.30; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 2089.15; CD2 Maximum Violation Level = 2036.93; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2048.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2056.25; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2079.49;10 Day Average True Range = 20.45

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price momentum clearly favors Bulls as 3 Day Central Pivot Zone has shifted to Bull Mode…Any pullback today should have ample buy response with Initial Key Support marked at 2068.25 Central Pivot. Should price clear and convert PH (2079.75), upside measures 2084.25 – 2087.25 STATX Zone. HOD ATR Range Projection is 2089.95.

Scenario 2: Price is currently trading slightly off PH (2079.75), with no additional upside expansion. Expected trade today is “back n fill” to absorb and consolidate prior gains. Levels of interest if violated may lead to deeper downside pullback in search of renewed buy response. Those levels are: 2072.50…2068.25…2064.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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