Markets
After saying the economy stands on better footing at its July meeting, the Federal Reserve will publish details of its view today, potentially giving a steer on how likely an interest rate increase will be in September or December. Further calls for rate hikes were heard yesterday from Fed officials William Dudley and Dennis Lockhart, who pointed to ongoing strength in the U.S. labor market and positive indications inflation may pick up.
In Asia, Japan +0.9% to 16745. Hong Kong -0.5% to 22799. China flat at 3109. India -0.2% to 28005.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1% to $46.13. Gold -0.7% to $1347.70
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.58%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Bullard speech
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
PTG Trading
This Cycle’s decline was one-day off as price “trickled lower” with a range of only 7.25 handles. 10-Day Average True Range has compressed to 11.18…Options Expiration this week has bulls and bears battling out for control. Big open interest at 2200 strike price.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently below CD1 Low (2080.50)…Price will need to clear this level to produce a Positive 3 Day Cycle…Next key level above for bulls to convert is 2186.00. Break below 2168 handle weakens the current structure in favor of “da bears”.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2194.75; LOD Range Projection: 2184.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2180.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2182.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2205.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 11.18
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price needs to auction back above 2180.50 for a positive cycle and hold for conversion. Next objective is to push beyond 2182 – 2186 zone to expand higher.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2180.50 is a sign of weakness…Further violation and conversion of 2168 handle is a breakdown, opening door for lower price 2162 handle.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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