Markets
S&P futures fell 50 bps on Friday and were down 30 points pre-open on Monday. They closed up roughly 35 points yesterday, but are now 15 points lower pre-market. “It’s like going to a casino,” traders are saying in frustration. A large part of the trading community has thrown up its hands already and blamed high-speed trading, but there are those still arguing about the Fed’s next move and the presidential election. Is it just better to sit this one out?
So what happened at Fedspeak yesterday? Fed Governor Lael Brainard said she wanted to see a stronger trend in U.S. consumer spending and evidence of rising inflation before the Fed raises rates, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that economic data warrants a serious discussion about the speed and path of future hikes. The result: Policymakers will go into the September meeting pretty divided.
In Asia, Japan +0.3% to 16729. Hong Kong -0.3% to 23215. China +0.1% to 3023. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude -2.4% to $45.20. Gold +0.4% to $1330.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.65%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
PTG Trading
What goes up must come down…or maybe…What goes down must go up…In either case investors and traders returning from their nice peaceful vacations find themselves riding the “vomit comet” futures market. We know September is known for its violent price moves and it seems this year won’t disappoint. STAY FOCUSED & DISCIPLINED.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Norm is for a decline…Ranges are now blowing outwards in expansionary fashion. Average True Range (10) has blossomed to 19.53…Nearly doubling from its August lows. We are anticipating 2128 handle for potential support on any pullback from prior highs. Anything is possible so remain flexible.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (Z) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2155.00; LOD Range Projection: 2131.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2169.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2147.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2189.75; 10 Day Average True Range: 19.35
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is pullback from PH (2156.00) and has reached 2136 which is CD1 Avg Decline projection. IF price can hold at or above 2136, THEN initial upside objective is 2146 – 2149 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Potential for 2128 to be today’s Key Support.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2128 handle to new resistance opens door for a retest of 2100 level for secure support. Should this scenario unfold potential for long liquidation again as margin calls should be in abundance.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN