Markets
In his annual State of the Union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned the EU was facing an “existential threat,” but insisted that Brexit doesn’t mean “the disintegration of the European Union.” He also said the U.K. could not expect access to the EU’s internal market without the free movement of people and called for an EU military with its own European headquarters, something Britain had long resisted.
The BOJ plans to make negative interest rates the centerpiece of future monetary easing, promising to weigh further cuts as expansions to its already massive asset buying near their limits, the Nikkei reports. The central bank adopted the controversial policy in February to hit its 2% inflation target, but the move’s unwelcome side effects have been a stronger yen and pressure on financial institutions from thinner margins.
In Asia, Japan -0.7% to 16614. Hong Kong -0.1% to 23190. China -0.7% to 3002. India +0.1% to 28379.
In Europe, at midday, London 0.7%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.5% to $45.10. Gold +0.2% to $1326.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.71%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
PTG Trading
Price declined on Cycle Day 1 as expected but did not hold 2128 as anticipated support. We did cite in Scenario 2 “ Violation and conversion of 2128 handle to new resistance opens door for a retest of 2100 level for secure support.” Price tested the breakpoint at 2112.25 and found sufficient responsive buyers to halt the decline.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Current secure low is marked at 2112.25…Price needs to stabilize at or above this level otherwise further selling is likely to unfold. Bulls will need to recapture broken 2128 handle and make this new upper support for any chance of regaining lost territory. Three-Day Central Pivots are now is bearish configuration below 2133 handle.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2143.25; LOD Range Projection: 2108.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2112.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2132.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2131.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 22.02
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can hold above PL (2112.25) THEN initial objective is to convert 2128 to new support. Should this occur further upside targets measure 2132 – 34 3D CPZ, then 2136 – 38 zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PL (2112.25) to lower resistance opens door to retest 2100 level. Any failure to hold support at this level opens door for additional forced margin selling.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN