Markets
The pound took a dive overnight, tanking as much as 9%, as traders scrambled to assess the cause of the heavy selling. Possible reasons? A fat finger, an error, a low liquidity sell-off, algorithmic trading, fears of a “hard Brexit,” etc. Sterling fell as far as $1.1491, striking its lowest level since 1985 – a year when it hit $1.0520 amid an acrimonious mining industry strike – but later recovered to hover at the $1.24 handle.
Crude prices have topped $50 a barrel once again, as OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers head to Istanbul for an informal meeting to discuss how to implement the production deal reached in Algiers last week. The gathering will take place between Oct. 8-13. OPEC members committed to lowering production to between 32.5M-33M barrels a day, marking a drop of around 750K barrels from September.
The U.S. employment report for September comes at a crucial time for both politics and policy, with the presidential election and Fed’s next meeting just weeks away. Economists are looking for an increase of 170K jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.9%, while traders will keep a close eye on clues that may point to the timing of the next rate hike. The data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
In Asia, Japan -0.2% to 16860. Hong Kong -0.4% to 23851. China closed. India -0.2% to 28061.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.8%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +0.5% to $50.67. Gold +0.5% to $1259.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.75%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
10:30 Stanley Fischer
12:45 PM Fed’s Mester speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Fed’s George speech
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:00 PM Fed’s Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard speech
PTG Trading
We stated in prior DTS Report 10.6.16 …“This cycle’s primary objectives have been satisfied, so as such, price could trade either direction. Bulls must convert 2156 – 58 zone to upper support for increased odds of continuation rally. Bears are seeking to convert 2146 – 48 zone to lower resistance to force selling.” Price held mainly within this projected range between 2146 – 2156 in prior session as price spins around a weekly pivot of 2153.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline with average projected decline measuring 2138.50. Average ranges have recently held steady of approximately 20 handles, so with the current bull/bear stalemate, price could easily move in either direction to as forces battle for directional control.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2167.00; LOD Range Projection: 2137.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2136.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2149.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2155.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 19.23
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to convert 2156 to upper support for upside expansion targeting 2159 – 2161 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2146 to lower resistance targets 2143 – 2141 STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN