Markets
‘Tis the season for rate hikes. At 2 p.m. ET the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate increase since last December and only the second since the financial crisis. But what’s less widely known is how fast the FOMC will tighten after that. Looking for clarity, investors will tune in to the central bank’s statement and economic forecasts on how it views Donald Trump’s election affecting the outlook for growth and inflation.
The FOMC meeting isn’t the only show in town today. Producer prices and industrial production warrant attention, but the retail-sales report, which will capture activity at the beginning of the all-important holiday season, is the one that really matters. It could give further proof that the economy is doing well enough to support a more hawkish Fed next year.
In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong flat. China -0.5%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1.4% to $52.22. Gold +0.5% to $1164.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 2.44%
Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference
PTG Trading
S&P e-mini (ES) hit upside 3 Day Cycle Target (2265.18) and Max Average Range (2273.00) to-the-tick in fine fashion yesterday, as traders await today’s Fed Interest Rate decision.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some type decline, but bull has been so strong that recent declines have been abnormally shallow.
Will today be any different?
Strength begets strength, though at some tipping point markets will take a breather and retrace. Do not be a hero trying to pick a top…Just remain with the dominant flow and enjoy the ride.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2281.52; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2252.23; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2239.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2255.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2265.18; 10 Day Average True Range: 16.52
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2017 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2273.00, THEN upside measured expansion targets 2281.52 through 2291.77.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2260 handle would be initial SOW, suggesting a deeper downside move targeting 2256 – 2252 zone. Deep extreme and over/under remains 2250 handle. Cycle Range Low measures 2245.91.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN