Oil prices fell again this morning following a steep 5% drop in the previous session after a surge in U.S. crude inventories dragged on sentiment. Stocks in the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer, surged last week by 8.2M barrels, beating forecasts of a 2M barrel build. WTI crude is now down 2.1% to $49.25/bbl, trading below $50 for the first time since mid-December.
In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong -1.1%. China -0.6%. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -2.1% to $49.25. Gold -0.4% to $1205.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 2.56%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
PTG Trading
S&P e-mini (ES) price waffled throughout the prior session ultimately succumbing to selling pressure closing low in its range. Weakness in oil patch could not be ignored by traders.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Again market is faced with price below the CD 1 Low (2364.50)…Failure to trade back above during today’s session will notch a failed 3 Day Rally inferring further weakness.
Note: Contract Rollover to June (M) begins Thursday.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2374.30; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2351.95; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2364.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2369.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2385.68; 10 Day Average True Range: 14.68
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2017 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Bulls need to hold price from further decay and convert 2372 – 2374 zone to support at minimum. IF successful, THEN more work is needed to get back to 2380 SPOT.
Scenario 2: Bears currently have the “easy road” with momentum at their backs…Further weakness below 2360 opens door to accelerate targeting 2352 – 2350 zone, followed by 2344.50 Cycle Range Low.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN