In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude flat at $67.74. Gold +0.2% to $1206.50. Bitcoin -1.9% to $63.75.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.89%
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 Fed’s Rosengren: “What Are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?”
9:00 Fed’s Mester: “What Are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?”
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
10:45 Fed’s Rosengren Speech on Saturday
S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price continued its decline in prior session fulfilling downside CD2 extension target zone between 2870 – 2865. Actual LOD was 2868, so direct hit. Once this level found sufficient buyer to absorb sellers, the relief rally was able to recover CD1 Low (2877.50) successfully notching a Positive 3 Day Cycle. albeit barely. NQ was not so lucky.
CD3 Range High = 2898.75 CD3 Range Low = 2859.00 CD3 Range Avg = 24.75
Scenario 1: IF price can hold bid above 2875, THEN upside potential measures 2882 – 84 zone where there was prior resistance.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2875, THEN downside test of prior low (2868) comes into play. Violation and conversion of this level opens trap door targeting 2862 – 2858 zone, followed by 2856 – 2858 violation extension zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2890.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2862.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2877.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2889.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2906.00; 10 Day Average True Range 19.00; VIX: 14.94
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NAZ continued its decline as FAANG stocks have been in liquidation-mode from large institutions and hedge funds. Market is effectively re-pricing merchandise to reflect current sentiment and an over-crowded trade.
Price is currently trading below its CD1 Low (7503.25). Unless it can recover this level, it will be a failed 3 Day Cycle, which is a bearish signal. Note: On shortened holiday trade weeks, we like to give the cycle one alternate day to achieve positive cycle. But if by next trade session CD1 low cannot be recovered, it will be failed cycle.
CD3 Range High = 7525.75 CD3 Range Low = 7365.50 CD3 Range Avg = 97.75
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7440, THEN initial upside targets 7462 – 7276 zone.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7440, THEN downside test of prior low (7407.75) would be anticipated. Violation and conversion of this level opens trap door measuring 7380.50 – 7364.50 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7514.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7402.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7503.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7557.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7616.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 86.50; VIX: 14.94
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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