Price notched a new contract high for the S&P e-mini (ES) in Globex trade albeit marginally. Yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy’s Scenario 1 played out perfectly as price reached upper price target 1986.00 to the tick. Here’s excerpt: “IF price can convert Prior Day High 1978.25, THEN there is a 55% chance of achieving 1981.00 – 1982.25 STATX Zone, followed by 1986 handle prior contract high. Initial pullback support is 1973 – 74 PDVTMP zone. Price will need to hold above this level and convert PDH to increase probabilities of achieving upper price targets.”
The current “power cycle” produced a shallow low on CD1 (1973) as anticipated, with high odds of notching new highs. Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2) with projected Cycle Target 1989 based upon historical average cycle rally.
Average Range on CD2 = 14.54; Max Range on CD2 = 22.25; Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Projected Cycle Targets: Min = 1990.25…Max = 1995.50
Today’s Hypotheses:
Scenario 1: IF price can convert prior day high (1986.00), THEN there is a 60% chance of price reaching 1988.75 – 1989.50 initial cycle targets. IF bullish momentum continues above initial target, THEN upside projects 1994.25 – 1995.50 maximum cycle targets.
Scenario 2: Price is currently above prior day high (1986)…Failure to hold above this level suggests a potential auction failure with increased odds of selling. Lower support levels to be mindful of are 1980 – 82 zone…1976 – 78 zone and 1972 – 75 3D Central Pivot Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our trade strategy has been focused on the long-side during this power-cycle and correctly so, as underlying market dynamics have been very bullish. We will continue to favor long-side cautiously as price tests contract highs. There is strong potential for a stop-run push higher then failure. Until there is a definitive structure shift in price dynamics, we must remain aligned with dominant force, which is currently the “Raging Bull”
Focus on the Trade Process…Not the Outcome…ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
Habitude One
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS