“Trade what happens, not what you hope happens.”
1. Pre-FOMC (8:00–13:55 ET)
🧘♂️ Market Mood:
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Low conviction
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Algo-driven chop
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Fake breaks to harvest liquidity
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Reduced volume until the grenade pin is pulled
🔭 Prep Checklist:
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Mark ONH/ONL, VWAP, IBH/IBL, and pre-Fed liquidity pockets
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Expect false rotations and compressed ranges
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DO NOT get heroic — today is about capital preservation until 2pm
2. 2:00 PM ET – The Drop
FOMC Statement + Dot Plot (if applicable) hits.
💥 Typical Reaction Pattern:
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Violent spike up or down (first impulse)
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Full retrace of that spike
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Secondary impulse in the true direction
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2:00–2:10 is untradable chaos for most mortals
🎯 What to watch:
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Immediate reaction around pre-Fed anchor levels
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Whether VWAP becomes a slingshot or gravity well
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If the first impulse fails → fade it
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If the first retrace holds → trend confirmation
3. 2:30 PM ET – Powell Press Conference
This is where the real trend for the day is usually established.
🎙️ Powell Pitfalls:
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Markets fade the statement and trade off Powell’s tone
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Hawkish Powell on dovish statement? → rug pull
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Dovish Powell on hawkish statement? → squeeze city
⚔️ Bias Clarifiers:
Watch these three signals during Powell:
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Does VWAP hold after 2:30?
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Does the impulse trend produce higher-lows or lower-highs?
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Do volume nodes migrate upward or downward?
The press conference often erases the 2pm move and replaces it with the real one.
4. PTG Fed Day Battle Plays
🟦 Play #1: The VWAP Sentinel
If price reclaims VWAP after the 2:30 PM volatility → bulls have the edge.
If price rejects VWAP aggressively → bears take command.
🟥 Play #2: The Dot Plot Divergence
If dot plot shifts more hawkish/dovish than futures pricing → expect multi-handle swings as algos reprice terminal rate.
🟩 Play #3: The Trend Lock
By 2:45–3:00 PM, the true trend often locks in for the afternoon run.
You trade with that flow — not against it.
🟨 Play #4: The “Don’t Be a Hero” Rule
If the chart looks like an EKG? Sit out.
Fed Day is a capital-preservation day until the tape gives you a clean edge.
5. Post-FOMC (3:15–4:00 ET)
🎯 Expect:
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Trend continuation
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Exhaustion spike
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Or a final short-covering ramp
This is where disciplined traders make their day — or stay flat and live to fight tomorrow.
6. PTG Fed Day Golden Rule
Your job isn’t to predict the Fed.
Your job is to execute the levels with discipline once the chaos resolves.