Yesterday was a perfect Cycle Day 3 (CD3), as price pushed above prior high sucking-in the last buyer at 2118.25 outlined in Scenario 1 of Prior DTS 04.27.15. Violation of 2114.75 forced a price reversal which took price down to projected Cycle Low of 2098 in overnight trade. Majority of decline is in-place as new cycle begins, but we won’t rule out further weakness to probe for new secure cycle low. Key Resistance is now marked at 2106 – 2108 zone for bulls to recapture dominance…For now, Bears have the ball!
Today is Cycle day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2113.75 based upon average range; Possible Low = 2088.75 based upon average violation of CD3 low on CD1.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: Price is currently trading near overnight lows (2095.25) and below PL (2100.25). Bulls will need to stem further declines and clear and convert 2100.25 to increase chance for recover prior day’s losses. Initial upside target is 2102.50, followed by 2104.50. IF price can rally with enough strength, THEN additional upside targets between 2106 – 2110 zone.
Scenario 2: Having closed on the LOD (2100.25), selling momentum is expected to continue as price probes for renewed buy response and “Secure Cycle Low”. Downside targets to be mindful of are 2096.00 STATX Zone, followed by 2093.75, then 2088.75 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” – Bruce Lee