S&P 500 (ES)
Cycle Day 1: New All-Time High — But Does It Stick?
A full week of upside bias did its job, printing a fresh All-Time High—mission accomplished. The only lingering question: was it convincing, or just technically sufficient?
This week now carries the burden of proof. Either price confirms the breakout with broader participation and sustained follow-through, or the market exposes the move as a high-water mark vulnerable to rejection.
Adding a wrinkle to the tape is non-confirmation from the Nasdaq, which failed to join the S&P at new ATH territory. Divergences don’t ring the bell on their own, but they do tap us on the shoulder—worth monitoring closely.
Cycle Day 1 behavior was textbook early: an established morning low set the tone for trend-up rhythms. However, late-day profit taking pulled some energy from the move, leaving a few weak hands unresolved as we roll into the new week.
In short:
The high is in.
The verdict is not.
Let the next rhythm decide.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 1.9.26 link.
Transition from Cycle Day 1 → Cycle Day 2
S&P traders roll into Week 2 riding the high of fresh all-time highs—confident, encouraged… and quietly checking the exits. New highs are exciting, but they come with a simple question: who’s actually willing to defend them?
The only thing that matters now is price structure and response. If participation expands, the tape will tell us. If it doesn’t, the tape will tell us even faster.
Late-Friday profit-taking suggests the boldest players still have chips on the table, but those stacks are sitting close to the edge. Any early weakness in GLOBEX or RTH, and expect a quick shuffle—risk gets reduced first, questions asked later.
That said, don’t rule out one more push higher. Traders love a second attempt… especially when confidence is still fresh and hope hasn’t been marked down yet.
As always, Cycle Day 2 is less about prediction and more about flexibility. The market will show its hand—we just need to decide whether to stay in the game or fold without regret.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus — Scenarios in Play
🟢 Bull Case (Buyers Stay in Control)
-
Hold north of 7005 ± 5
-
Upside objectives:
7015 → 7020 → 7025
Momentum remains constructive as long as acceptance holds above the pivot zone.
🔴 Bear Case (Rotation / Reset)
-
Hold south of 7005 ± 5
-
Downside objectives:
6990 → 6975 → 6965
Failure to reclaim the pivot opens the door for a controlled reset—not a collapse.
📊 Key Reference Levels
-
PVA High Edge: 7017
-
PVA Low Edge: 6985
-
Prior POC: 7005
Bottom Line
Cycle Day 2 favors consolidation over celebration.
Respect the pivot, trade the edges, and let price tell the truth—ATHs don’t need fanfare, just follow-through.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Strong Fryday showing from the NAZ, no doubt—but the failure to print a fresh All-Time High while the S&P 500 flexes its muscles puts the Divergence Patrol officially on high alert. And as traders know all too well:
“So goes the Nasdaq… so goes the market.”
Up to this point, markets have been impressively resilient, grinding higher with few hiccups and plenty of confidence. But resilience without confirmation has an expiration date. As we roll into this week’s auction, that upside cadence must stay intact—or risk turning from march to muddle.
Maybe it’s time for traders to dust off the crystal ball. Failing that, at least give the Magic 8-Ball a shake. Because from here, the tape is about to start answering some uncomfortable questions.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 – Trading Focus
Key scenarios in play for today’s session:
🟢 Bull Case
Holding north of 25900 ±10 pts opens the door to upside continuation toward:
25975 → 26000 → 26030
🔴 Bear Case
Holding south of 25900 ±10 pts keeps downside pressure intact with targets at:
25848 → 25800 → 25770
Reference Levels
-
PVA High Edge: 25983
-
PVA Low Edge: 25773
-
Prior POC: 25957
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN