Markets (Top Stories)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis appears set to report tomorrow (Jan. 25) that US output slowed sharply in the fourth quarter after Q3’s unusually strong gain.
But Thursday’s GDP report is also expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.
Q4 growth is on track to rise 2.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), based on today’s median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The estimate contrasts with Q3’s sharply higher 4.9% increase.
Source: James Picerno Investing.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): As noted in prior DTS Briefing 01.24.24 “…momentum is building for a “trend-continuation” scenario.” which fulfilled 3-Day Cycle Penetration Target (4926). Liquidation sell-down once cycle objectives were satisfied, reverted price back to 4900 Roundie. Prior range was 44 handles on 1.085M contracts exchanged.
NOTE: Once 3-Day Cycle Range Objectives are fulfilled, potential increases for reversionary price action to unfold. Such as what happened in prior session. So best to be mindful of that scenario.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Objectives are fulfilled, so we’ll mark today as a “wild-card”, meaning bullish momentum remains intact, though directional influence may reverse at any time. Our daily plan remains unchanged. Stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4895, initially targets 4910 – 4915 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4895, initially targets 4880 – 4875 zone.
****IMPORTANT NOTE: It is good practice to review previous briefings as many times key levels noted then, come into play for the current session. PREPARATION = PROFITS
PVA High Edge = 4930 PVA Low Edge = 4910 Prior POC = 4916
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4943; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4853; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4895; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4915; 10 Day Average True Range 47; VIX: 13
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): As noted in prior DTS Briefing 01.24.24 “…momentum is building for a “trend-continuation” scenario.” which fulfilled 3-Day Cycle Target (17754). Liquidation sell-down once cycle objectives were satisfied, reverted price back to 17600 Roundie. Prior range was 241 handles on 711k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Objective (17754) has been fulfilled, so we’ll mark today as a “wild-card”, meaning bullish momentum remains intact, though directional influence may reverse at any time. Our daily plan remains unchanged. Stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 17600, initially targets 17665 – 17695 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 17600, initially targets 17565 – 17550 zone.
PVA High Edge = 17726 PVA Low Edge = 17613 Prior POC = 17651
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 17839; LOD ATR Range Projection: 17388; 3 Day Central Pivot: 17552; 3 Day Cycle Target: 17754; 10 Day Average True Range: 239; VIX: 13
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN