Trade Strategy 1.29.16

Posted on by January 29, 2016
Markets
The Bank of Japan shocked financial markets overnight by adopting negative interest rates for the first time ever, in a desperate attempt to kick start the world’s number three economy. A rate of -0.1% will now apply to excess reserves parked at the central bank, which will extend the policy “as long as it is necessary.” The decision saw global shares jump, the yen fall and sovereign bonds rally, and comes a day after the surprise resignation of Economy Minister Akira Amari.
In Asia, Japan +2.8% to 17518. Hong Kong +2.5% to 19683. China +3.1% to 2738. India +1.6% to 24871.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.7%. S&P +0.7%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +0.2% to $33.29. Gold -0.4% to $1112.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -6 bps to 1.92%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Farm Prices

PTG Trading

S&P e-mini pretty much played out as written in prior DTS Report 1.28.16. Wide range consolidation was name of game, touching our upper level at 1902.00 (Scenario 1) and holding above key 1863.50 (LOD Projection).

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL…Three Day Cycle Target (1897.00) has been achieved, so as such, end of month trade activity may end up being a bit choppy as bulls and bears will continue to play “tug-o-war” battle for control.

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 1916.75; CD2 Maximum Penetration Level = 1910.75; LOD Range Projection = 1863.00; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1865.75; CD2 Violation Level = 1854.25

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (1902.50), THEN upside range expansion targets 1906.25 – 1910.75, followed by 1916.75.

Scenario 2: Violation of 1872.00 opens door to retest Cycle Day 1 Low (1865.75), followed by lower expansion down to 1860.75 – 1854.25.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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