Markets
It’s the first Friday of the month, and that means the non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect the NFP release to show that 200,000 jobs were added in December, with the unemployment rate staying near a 50-year low at 3.7%. Wage growth will also be a focal point, indicating how much the tight labor market may be contributing to inflation. Consensus estimates see average hourly earnings rising 5.0% on a Y/Y basis vs. 5.1% in November, and that figure had risen from 4.7% Y/Y growth in October.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Service Index
11:15 Fed’s Bostic Speech
12:15 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined establishing a Cycle Low at 3822.50. Prior range was 63 handles on 1.635M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for consolidation of recent trading range activity. Market remains within a multi-day composite trading range as traders await a catalyst to shift the current neutral balance to a more directional lean. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3825, initially targets 3845 – 3850 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3825, initially targets 3800 – 3795 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3845 PVA Low Edge = 3825 Prior POC = 3830
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3896; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3777; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3856; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3925; 10 Day Average True Range 72; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined establishing a Low at 10805. Prior range was 241 handles on 689k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is for consolidation of recent trading range activity. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 10805, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10900– 10910 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 10805, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10760 – 10740 zone.
PVA High Edge = 10893 PVA Low Edge = 10824 Prior POC = 10864
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11052; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10610; 3 Day Central Pivot: 10953; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11236; 10 Day Average True Range: 275; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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