Trade Strategy 10.24.25

Posted on by October 26, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Tactical Flip-Flop Ahead of CPI

Market Recap Narrative

Overnight buyers pressed their advantage early, punching up to tag the 6750 target—only to be promptly smacked back below 6735, our intraday “line in the sand.”


David’s early call for a potential 6715–6705 pullback zone hit right in the morning rhythm before bulls reasserted control and reclaimed 6765, effectively sealing the full Cycle Day 1 Range Projection Target (6785) by mid-afternoon.

The room rolled through a session that alternated between bursts of momentum and “Flip-Floppy Rhythms”—classic pre-CPI tension. The Big Boyz apparently got the memo, with a $5.3B MOC Sell Imbalance confirming their late-day exit strategy.

Meanwhile, Bosier took home today’s Kewpie Award after a clinic in range-trading finesse—shorting with precision at 59.75 and flipping long near 43.75 for multiple intraday wins. As David quipped, the “Phrase of the Day” was:

“Thank you, sir… may I have another!”

Range was 68 handles on 1.316M contracts exchanged

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 10.23.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session. 

BIG Event for today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to have “market impact.”

Market’s are close to the All-Time High, so a favorable report could be the catalyst to notch a new high. Today is also CAPITAL PRESERVATION DAY so proceed accordingly.

Here’s a preview of the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly inflation report — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — set for Friday, October 24, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. bls.gov+2Investopedia+2

✅ Release details & context

  • The CPI release originally scheduled for October 15 has been postponed to October 24 due to the U.S. federal government shutdown. bls.gov+2CBS News+2

  • The data will cover September 2025 prices and is particularly important because it will feed into the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security Administration beneficiaries. Reuters+1

  • Markets and policymakers (especially the Federal Reserve) will pay close attention — inflation continuing to hover higher complicates the timing of potential rate cuts. The Street+2Forex+2

📊 What analysts are expecting

  • Headline CPI (year-over-year) is broadly expected around 2.9% for September 2025. MarketPulse+2Investing.com+2

  • Some forecasts suggest a slight increase toward or above 3.0% in the annual rate. Manifold+1

  • For the monthly change (September vs August), estimates cluster around +0.3% (some seeing a chance of +0.4%) for headline CPI. MarketPulse+1

  • For “core” CPI (which excludes food & energy), the market is watching for upward pressure — a monthly jump of 0.3-0.4% would raise concern about inflation persistence. Forex+1

🔍 Key themes & risks

  • Tariff pass-through and goods inflation: Some inflation in goods, especially where import costs or tariffs are feeding through, remain a risk. TastyLive+1

  • Shelter & services inflation: These continue to be underlying drivers of inflation even as energy or volatile items fluctuate.

  • Data blackout / limited data environment: Because the shutdown has limited many data releases, this CPI print carries extra weight for markets and policymakers. Investopedia+1

  • Policy implications: If inflation comes in stronger than expected, the Fed may be less inclined to cut rates soon. Conversely, a cooler-than-expected print could increase speculation of near-term rate cuts. The Street+1

🎯 What to watch when the data comes out

  • Headline vs Core: The distinction is crucial. A modest headline number may mask sticky core inflation.

  • Monthly vs Annual comparison: A small monthly rise can still lead to a meaningful annual increase if the prior period was low.

  • Breadth of inflation: Are many categories seeing price increases (goods, services, energy, food) or is it concentrated?

  • Market reaction: Watch for movements in Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, stock markets and expectations for Fed policy.

  • Implication for Social Security COLA: Because COLA uses the CPI-W data for certain months, the September reading has direct relevance to benefit adjustments.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6775+-, initially targets 6795 – 6805 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6775+-, initially targets 6760 – 6750 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6778    PVA Low Edge = 6745         Prior POC = 6775

   ESZ

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Early weakness set up a normal “back test” of the prior session’s sell-down, establishing a new Cycle Low @ 24937. Subsequent rally throughout the remainder of the day laid the foundation to the big CPI Fryday showdown.

Range for this session was 359 handles on 521k contracts exchanged.

 

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session. 

BIG Event for today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to have “market impact.”

Market’s are close to the All-Time High, so a favorable report could be the catalyst to notch a new high. Today is also CAPITAL PRESERVATION DAY so proceed accordingly.

Be on Alert for more Trump Tape Bombs!

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25275+-, initially targets 25345 – 25395 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 25275+-, initially targets 25195 – 25155 zone.

PVA High Edge = 25282     PVA Low Edge = 25112         Prior POC = 25272

NQZ

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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