Trade Strategy 10.29.25

Posted on by October 29, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Futures opened flat — a collective deep breath ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the double-feature of Trump–Xi talks + MegaCap earnings (6 of 7 Mag7). Translation: “Today’s mission — don’t blow yourself up before the main event.”

Price caught a bid mid morning and extended the prior “super-cycle” rally to the Money Box / CALL WALL zone before getting firmly rejected, closing lower, but securing a bullish session ahead of the FED.

🧠 PTG Takeaway

“Cycle Day 1 set the stage, not the climax.”
With the Fed and Mag7 earnings queued up midweek, today’s drift was the market’s version of a soundcheck — volume low, tension high. Tomorrow, the orchestra plays.

Range was 43 handles on 1.159M contracts exchanged

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 10.28.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session. 

The BIG Event for today is the FOMC Statement and Presser which is expected to have “market impact.”

CME FedWatch Tool has a 99.5% chance for cut.

Below we preview FOMC:

✅ What’s expected

  • Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis-point cut (0.25%) to move the federal funds rate from its current range of 4.00 %-4.25 % to 3.75 %-4.00 %. Reuters+3Reuters+3Trading Economics+3

  • Probability metrics: The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows odds near ~98% for a 25 bp cut. Polymarket+1

🔍 Why they’re likely to cut

  • Labor market softness: Employment growth has decelerated, raising concerns about downside risks to jobs. Reuters+1

  • Cooling inflation (but still above target): The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-over-year, slightly under expectations. Core inflation likewise eased a bit. Investopedia+1

  • Policy tilt/communication: The Fed’s language and speeches by Chair Jerome Powell suggest they’re tilting toward “another cut is appropriate” if conditions permit. Investopedia+1

  • Market/emphasis signal: Bond markets are reacting as though a cut is “baked in,” reducing longer-dated Treasury positions ahead of the meeting. Reuters

     

    ❗What to watch / risks

    • Inflation stickiness: Even though inflation is easing, it’s still well above the Fed’s 2 % target, so any surprise uptick could cause the Fed to hesitate or moderate their language. Reuters+1

    • Data black-out / cloudiness: The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key labor and economic data, meaning the Fed is operating with more uncertainty than usual. Reuters+1

    • Forward guidance matters: The cut might happen—but the market really cares about what the Fed says it will do next. If they signal fewer or smaller cuts ahead, that matters a lot for markets and borrowing costs. Reuters+1

       

      🎯 Bottom line for you 

      Yes — the Fed is very likely (≈ 99.5% odds) to announce a 25 bp rate cut at the October meeting, taking the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The bigger story will be what they say about future cuts. Markets are expecting more easing later this year, so any signal that they’re less enthusiastic could shake things.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6925+-, initially targets 6940 – 6945 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6925+-, initially targets 6910 – 6905 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6938    PVA Low Edge = 6913         Prior POC = 6926

   ESZ

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: The previous “super-cycle” rally extended as price pushed higher surpassing the D-Level Money Box Zone notching ever higher All Time Highs before settling back producing a strong bullish day ahead of the FED decision on Interest Rates. 

Range for this session was 288 handles on 440k contracts exchanged.

 

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session. 

BIG Event for today is the FOMC Statement and Presser which is expected to have “market impact.”

CME FedWatch Tool has 99.5% chance for cut.

Above we preview FOMC:

Be on Alert for more Trump Tape Bombs!

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 26170+-, initially targets 26270 – 26310 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 26170+-, initially targets 26075 – 26040 zone.

PVA High Edge = 26170     PVA Low Edge = 26006         Prior POC = 26040

NQZ

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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