Markets
European stocks are lower for a second day after Asian shares tumbled as disappointment with the European Central Bank’s stimulus decision reverberated across global markets. On Thursday, the central bank announced a stimulus plan that was weaker than most had expected, causing a bumpy ride on trading floors and pushing up the euro more than 3%, its biggest one day gain in five years. Next up on the investor radar is today’s U.S. jobs report. The data could cement a highly anticipated interest rate hike this month, signaling the end to an era of easy lending. U.S. futures are all up 0.4%.
So what numbers are economists looking for in November’s employment figures? U.S. job growth likely remained solid, with forecasts for 200,000 non-farm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5%. Yesterday, Fed chair Janet Yellen said in a testimony before Congress that economic data is sufficiently strong to start raising benchmark interest rates later this month. She also outlined that the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the working age population.
Traders are also closely watching today’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, where the cartel is expected to keep its production ceiling of 30M barrels per day. The situation is little changed from a year ago, when Saudi Arabia refused to slash production, a move which sent oil prices to the mid-$30s and upped the rivalry with U.S. shale producers. Earlier reports suggested that Riyadh could be ready to compromise on output cuts with other non-OPEC members, but by this morning those rumors had been widely dismissed. Crude futures +1.8% to $41.82/bbl. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 International Trade
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:45 PM Fed’s Bullard: “Neo Fisherianism”
4:10 PM Fed’s Kocherlakota “Monetary Policy Renormalization”
PTG Trading
Selling continued to dominate the trading landscape yesterday as margin liquidation forced price down to extreme STATX Level of 2040 before bouncing. Overnight trade has price up to 2063.00 Key Resistance…Key Support will be marked at 2048.50 SPOT.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Markets are way below their Cycle Day 1 Low and have their work cut out to reach 2075.00 for Positive 3 Day Cycle.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2063.00.00; Possible LOD 2045.25
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2063.00, THEN initial upside objective is 2067.75, followed by 2071.00 SPOT…Above this level targets CD1 Low (2075.00)
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2063.00 keeps down trend intact with potential to retest recent lows. Initial downside level to be mindful of is 2053.50 SPOT, followed by 2048.50, 2046.00. Violation of PL (2040.00) targets 2035.50 – 2029.00 STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS