Markets
Financial markets are starting the month on uncertain footing following a dramatic November that featured a U.S. election, OPEC meeting and anticipation of Italy’s upcoming referendum. Despite surging oil prices, U.S. futures are following yesterday’s slight decline on Wall Street, while the dollar retreats from a nine-month high. The fixed income outlook today isn’t looking great either, with European sovereign debt looking vulnerable and Treasuries still under pressure from the administration change.
In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong +0.4%. China +0.7%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.1%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +1.2% to $50.04. Gold -0.3% to $1170.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 2.41%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
Auto Sales
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
PTG Trading
Failed upside breakout resulted in a “key reversal day” as prices progressively auctioned lower all session, capping off with $1.4B Market On Close Sell Imbalance.
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for decline which began in prior session and continues in overnight trade, as price is currently trading below 2197.50 prior low. Average Decline targets 2190.50 ATR Range Low Projection.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2205.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2190.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2198.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2203.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2219.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 11.25
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently below PL (2197.50)…Bulls will need to recapture this level and convert 2202 to upper support for a reversal rally. Larger resistance now has formed between 2203 – 2206 zone.
Scenario 2: Bears will want to keep price below PL (2197.50) to force long liquidation…IF this occurs, THEN initial downside targets 2193 – 2190.50 zone. Further weakness measures 2185 – 2183 extremes.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN