S&P 500 (ES)
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: Santa Rally in Full Swing
Santa didn’t wait for the calendar this year — he front-ran the move.
What’s officially a December 24 tradition kicked off early on the 17th, with bulls defending the 6775 pullback support and confidently reclaiming the 6800 handle like it was already gift-wrapped.
The real tell?
Acceptance above 6820–6825. Once price held that zone, the foundation was poured, cured, and signed off by the inspectors. From there, the rally had permission to stretch its legs.
Now we enter the final three trading sessions of 2025 — the closing chapter.
Do we unwrap a fresh all-time high, or does the market pull a classic year-end “sell-the-ribbon, keep-the-gift” maneuver?
Either way, Cycle Day 2 is likely to do exactly what it’s supposed to do:
hold ground, reduce drama, and let time do the heavy lifting.
Below are some interesting Santa Claus Rally historical statistics.
It covers the last 5 trading days of December + the first 2 of January.
$SPX was up 77% of the time.
The last 2 were negative, but there has never been a third straight down Santa Claus Rally.
Data provided by @SubuTrade
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus
Scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
🟢 Bull Case
-
Hold north of 6975 +- 5 pts targets 6990…6997…7005
🔴 Bear Case
-
Hold south of 6975 +- 5 pts targets 6960…6955…6950
PVA High Edge = 6983 PVA Low Edge = 6975 Prior POC = 6978
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Countdown engaged… Three!… Two!… One! ⏱️
Cycle Day 1 did its job — structure set, damage avoided, and nobody tripped over the eggnog. Now we roll into Cycle Day 2, where history, seasonality, and common sense all say the same thing:
👉 Don’t get cute.
It’s been a banner year for the Magnificent 7 and the Nasdaq — gifts delivered, trends respected, books looking real pretty on the shelf. This is not the moment to freestyle a miracle trade or audition for Greatest Drawdown of 2025.
The mission for the final three sessions is simple:
-
Protect gains
-
Run the clock
-
Close the books without lighting anything on fire
Santa’s watching. Margin clerks are not in a forgiving mood. 🎅📉
Finish strong. Finish boring. Finish green.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus
Scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
🟢 Bull Case
-
Hold north of 25855 + – 10 pts targets 25885…25895…25915
🔴 Bear Case
-
Hold south of 25855 +- 10 pts targets 25835…25820…25795
PVA High Edge = 25892 PVA Low Edge = 25860 Prior POC = 25878
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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