S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: “Capital Preservation Fryday — Because Fun Is Optional but Discipline Isn’t.”
Fryday’s rhythm can be simply characterized as a series of “traps n snaps” on both sides of the ledger. Nobody escaped the market maker’s chop. The Hanz n Franz chop was real!
Range was 48.25 handles on 1.254M contracts traded.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.5.25 link.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Transition into Cycle Day 3: Pivotal Week – Wild Card Activated
This week isn’t your average glide into a Cycle Day 3. Price is grinding higher in that stubborn, mule-in-a-rainstorm fashion — not the emotional breakout rhythm we’ve come to expect when traders are feeling frisky.
Why? Easy: FOMC week.
The market’s currently pricing an 88.4% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, and nobody wants to be the cowboy who gets bucked off two days before the announcement. So the tone? Cautiously optimistic, sleeves rolled down, collars buttoned up.
Key Support — Same Battlefield, New Stakes
The freshly posted Briefing zeroes in on the 6855–6865 zone as the structural heartbeat of this week.
Last week, price danced across this area more times than a Chicago wedding DJ, and every single time the BTFD platoon swarmed in for a defense.
But here’s the rub:
➡️ If 6855 gets challenged again — and we don’t see a reaction?
The repricing lower could come fast and unfriendly.
This is what makes the week pivotal: the market might be done pretending that zone is bulletproof.
Bulls vs. Bears – Chicago Edition
Chicago Bulls
They want the upside breakout. Their target:
🎯 6900 → 6920 clearance
A clean sweep through there unlocks a fresh leg higher and validates the grind.
Chicago Bears
They’re eying the trapdoor beneath support.
🎯 6845 → 6835
Break it… hold it… and the value shift lower is fully in play.
Given the tug-of-war and the fact that the initial 3-Day Cycle target has already been met, today’s session gets an official label:
🔥 “Wild-Card Session” — anything can play, nothing is guaranteed.
The board is set.
Players are in position.
FOMC loometh.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6880+-, initially targets 6905 – 6920 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6880+-, initially targets 6865 – 6855 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6886 PVA Low Edge = 6878 Prior POC = 6880
ESZ
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Balanced, Bruised, and Fryday-Disciplined
Cycle Day 2 delivered a classic “snaps-and-traps” balancing act — the kind of back-and-forth that leaves both bulls and bears limping into the weekend like they just survived a family holiday dinner debate. Every rotation teased conviction; every reversal stole it back.
But if you honored Capital Preservation Fryday?
Then congratulations — you protected both your financial capital and that priceless mental capital the market tries to mug you for every Friday afternoon.
Survive. Reset. Trade another day.
That’s the real alpha.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Transition into Cycle Day 3: Wild-Card Mode Activated
The initial 3-Day Cycle target at 25664 has already been cleanly tagged — the market’s way of saying, “Alright, objective complete… now what?”
And with traders sitting in a holding pattern ahead of this week’s FOMC fireworks, today carries that unmistakable wild-card energy where anything is possible and nothing is promised.
Bulls are trying to defend turf above the 5-Day Value High at 25745, posting up like overconfident bouncers outside a nightclub.
Bears, meanwhile, are pacing at the 5-Day Value Low at 25570, ready to shove price through the floor if they get even a whiff of weakness.
Between those levels?
Welcome to full-on chop-mode — the market’s favorite psychological torture chamber where conviction goes to die and traders get forced to practice involuntary patience.
Battle lines are drawn.
Now let’s see who actually shows up ready to fight.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25740+-, initially targets 25814– 25868 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 25740+-, initially targets 25623 – 25580 zone.
PVA High Edge = 25750 PVA Low Edge = 25700 Prior POC = 25740
NQZ
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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