Markets
How many hikes in 2022? Estimates on Wall Street now range from three rate increases all the way to seven, with the federal funds rate projected to end the year in a range of 1.25%-2.00% (the current effective floor is 0.00%–0.25%).
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Market did produce a shallow decline after which it was “game-on” for the bulls, as Mutual Fund Monday kicked into a high-gear rally. Month end rebalance had Market on Close $4 billion Buy Imbalance. Prior range was 112 handles on 1.715M, contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for Cycle Day 2 would be for some back n fill consolidation to absorb prior session’s rally. Current overnight range is 35 handles, so expectation is for continued 2-way traffic to begin the day. Three-Day Rally projections are already in-place. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4492, initially targets 4507 – 4512 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4492, initially targets 4478 – 4472 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4507 PVA Low Edge = 4447 Prior POC = 4500
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4596; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4396; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4393; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4474; 10 Day Average True Range 118; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price vaulted out of the opening gate and never looked back, as institutional bueys dominated the landscape for the final day of January. Prior range was 562 handles on 634k contracts traded. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14914 PVA Low Edge = 14553 Prior POC = 14767
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14865, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14965 – 14996 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14865, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14820 – 14770 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15321; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14462; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14356; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14727; 10 Day Average True Range: 503; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN