Trade Strategy 2.17.16

Posted on by February 17, 2016
Markets
The FOMC is poised to issue the minutes from its meeting in January, where the Federal Reserve declared it still intended to raise interest rates gradually, but was “closely monitoring” market developments. While the transcript is likely to underscore reasons for confidence, that’s not likely to change minds on Wall Street, where there is a growing conviction the Fed is once again overestimating the strength of the economy. What else is on tap for today? The producer price index, housing starts, industrial production data, and Fed President James Bullard will give a speech in St. Louis on the U.S. economy/monetary policy
In Asia, Japan -1.4% to 15836. Hong Kong -1% to 18925. China +1.1% to 2867. India +0.8% to 23382.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +1.9%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.7%. Crude +2% to $29.63. Gold -0.4% to $1203.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.78%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
2:00 PM FOMC minutes

PTG Trading

Price held above 1880.00 Key Support laid out in Daily Trade Strategy 2.16.16 “Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 1880.00 Central Pivot, and Clear and Convert PH (1890.00), THEN initial upside objective is 1899.17, followed by 1904.50.”

In overnight trade, price has reached 1904.50 which is 3 Day Cycle Rally Target. Trend Dynamics have shifted to Bullish as price is now firmly above two consecutive 3 Day Central Pivot Zones, which is proxy for structural trend shift. Key Support Zone now is marked between 1865 – 1870.00.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL HIGHER…Bulls have renewed momentum heading into Fed Minutes release. Three-Day Cycle Target has been achieved…Odds favor further upside expansion, though having reached Cycle Target, there is potential for a decline.

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 1918.33; LOD Range Projection = 1867.17; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 1901.00; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 1856.25; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1865.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1870.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1904.50; 10 Day Average True Range = 36.83.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (1892.75), THEN initial upside objective is 1901.00 – 1904.50 zone. Above this zone price can vault higher targeting 1912.50 – 1920.50 STATX Zone. High of Day Range Projection = 1918.33.

Scenario 2: Violation back below PH (1892.75) shifts micro-bullish momentum back to neutral/bear. IF this occurs, THEN price has higher odds to retest 1880.00 Key Support. Further violation of this level targets 1870.50 3 Day Central Pivot.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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