Markets
All the uncertainty has led to renewed risk-off sentiment, with U.S. stock index futures falling as much as 3% after major comeback sessions last week. Concerns over energy disruptions sent crude oil futures in the opposite direction, with the contracts climbing 4% to $95/bbl. Risk aversion was also seen elsewhere, as gold futures rose 1.2% to about $1,910 a troy ounce, the dollar index advanced 0.8% to 97.368 and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 7 bps to 1.91%.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
3:00 PM Farm Prices
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price rallied strongly on this cycle day as unwinding of defensive PUT positions drove the momentum. Range was 154 handles on 1.800M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price gapped lower on GLOBEX open, finding responsive buyers within 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (4256 – 4278) and has since rallied throughout the overnight, currently trading near pre.RTH highs. Three-Day Cycle Statistic is in-place, so we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” with fluid geo-political newsy. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains bid above 4300, initially targets 4335 – 4345 zone.
2.) Price sustains offer below 4300, initially targets 4270 – 4260 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
PVA High Edge = 4381 PVA Low Edge = 4303 Prior POC = 4368
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4339; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4273; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4269; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4334; 10 Day Average True Range 112; VIX: 32
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is rebounding from deep overnight gap lower, trading near pre-RTH highs. Prior range was 426 handles on 758k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13955, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14068 – 14094 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13955, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13900 – 13850 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14181 PVA Low Edge = 13926 Prior POC = 14128
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14268; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13688; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13786; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14094; 10 Day Average True Range: 508; VIX: 32
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN