Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
1https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continued this cycle’s rally fulfilling Upper Penetration Target 4580 – 4585, which marked the highs of the day. Fakebook earnings miss release after market close drove prices sharply lower. Prior range was 51 handles on 1.554M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4556, which is more than in-place, as price is trading near 4536 handle pre-RTH. Recent ranges have been “flip-flopping’ making it a challenege to identify fair-value. So we’ll let Mr. Market show us what price zone is acceptable. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4535, initially targets 4550 – 4555 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4535, initially targets 4520 – 4518 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4570 PVA Low Edge = 4542 Prior POC = 4560
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4652; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4416; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4416; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4555; 10 Day Average True Range; 132; VIX: 23
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
And just like that, the volatility came back. A tarnished earnings report from Meta Platforms (FB), formerly known as Facebook, dented whatever sentiment the market seemed to take hold of over the last few days following the big reverberations seen in January. Shares of Meta tumbled 23% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, wiping out $200B in market capitalization, while the worries spilled over to Nasdaq futures, which slid more than 2% overnight (that came after the biggest four-day rally since November 2020).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price selloff which was sparked by Fakebook after market close has pushed price down to CD1 Violation Level (14777) during overnight activity. Prior range was 435 handles on 634k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14792, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14867 – 14900 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14792, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14770– 14750 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15168 PVA Low Edge = 15022 Prior POC = 15104
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15337; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14279; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14896; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14896; 10 Day Average True Range: 590; VIX: 23
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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