Trade Strategy 2.5.16

Markets
Futures are edging into the green ahead of the January payrolls report due at 8:30 ET. Consensus calls for 190K jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5%. Traders in interest rate markets have essentially priced out the chance of a rate hike in 2016 and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen all the way to 1.85%, so a strong jobs number could make things interesting in fixed-income. Both the Nikkei and Shanghai were lower overnight, and Europe is modestly higher at midday.

In Asia, Japan -1.3% to 16819 . Hong Kong +0.6% to 19288. China -0.7% to 2963 . India +1.1% to 24617.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.4% to $31.84. Gold +0.2% to $1159.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 1.85%

 (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 International Trade
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

PTG Trading

Prior Session was “modestly quiet” as range contracted to 32 handles, as traders and investors seemingly took a break from the recent torrid trading pace to catch their breath…Do Algo’s need a break to “catch their breath?”

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Price currently sits about midway within current trading range as the 3 Day Central Pivot is 1902.75 and 5 Day Point of Control is 1906.00. Average True Range (10) = 37.03. Bulls need to convert 1923.50 for higher…Bears need to kill 1894.00 to push lower.. “Battle of the Bots” continues…

Range Projections and Key Levels:

HOD Range Projection = 1938.25; LOD Range Projection = 1877.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1926.00; Average Cycle Range Decline Target = 1881.50; Central Pivot = 1906.00; 3 Day Central Pivot Zone = 1901.25 – 1902.75.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Bulls need to clear and convert PH (1922.25) for upside range expansion targeting 1926.00…1931.00….1932.50…1938.25 respectively.

Scenario 2: Bears need to first convert 1902.00 as new resistance…then kill 1894.00 SPOT to force selling targeting 1890 – 1886.25 STATX Zone…Cycle Range Decline Target = 1881.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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