S&P 500 (ES)
Cycle Day 1 — Shake the Tree, See What Falls 🌳
The Setup
Yesterday’s liquidation didn’t break the market —
it tuned it.
Cycle Day 1 opened with a tight throat, sweaty palms, and bad positioning.
Exactly what the tape ordered.
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Line in the Sand: 6950
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Congestion Cluster: 6945 – 6975
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Translation: “Enter here at your own emotional risk.”
The Game Plan (Spoiler: It Worked)
🟢 Bull Case: Hold north of 6950 ±5
Targets: 6965 → 6970 → 6975
🔴 Bear Case: Acceptance south of 6950 ±5
Targets: 6930 → 6920 → 6910
And because this is Cycle Day 1, not story time…
➡️ Both sides got paid.
Upper edge tagged ✔️
Lower edge tagged ✔️
Market shrugged. Moved on.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 2.4.26 link.
Transition: Cycle Day 1 → Cycle Day 2
Broadening of the Range — Is This a Market Top?
Lately, the chatter has picked up suggesting the market has either topped or is carving out a classic Wyckoff Distribution.
Maybe.
Maybe not.
Markets don’t ring bells at turning points — they leave footprints.
What is observable is that price has begun broadening the multi-week range, expanding both sides of the auction. That alone does not confirm a top. It confirms two-sided trade and increasing disagreement — the hallmark of transition, not resolution.
Remember: the S&P 500 is not a single entity.
It’s an amalgam of sectors and industries, each exerting its own influence.
Yes — Financials and Technology carry outsized weight.
Yes — they deserve close monitoring.
But range expansion often reflects rotation, not liquidation.
Wherever Mr. Market ultimately resolves, one thing is certain:
PTG traders won’t be guessing.
We stay in-flow, aligned with the market’s rhythms and dynamics, executing the plan — not predicting the headline.
No opinions.
No hero trades.
Just disciplined adherence to the rules.
Cycle Day 2 — Gameplay & Expectations
The primary objective for Cycle Day 2 is simple and textbook:
• Back-test the Cycle Day 1 low at 6862.50 (not required, but valid)
• Hold to confirm support
• Begin rebuilding upside momentum to extend the cycle rally
If support is accepted, upper cycle targets remain live:
🎯 6938 – 6959
Normal CD2 Behavior Favors:
• Balance
• Consolidation
• Energy reloading — not immediate expansion
Think digestion, not indigestion.
The market doesn’t need to sprint today — it just needs to prove it can stand on its own two feet before pushing higher.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 — Scenarios in Play
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 6895 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 6938
• 6948
• 6959
Momentum remains constructive as long as price holds above the pivot zone.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 6895 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 6880
• 6875
• 6865
Failure to reclaim the pivot opens the door for a controlled reset, not panic.
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 6952
• PVA Low Edge: 6897
• Prior POC: 6923
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
Transition from Cycle Day 1 → Cycle Day 2
The Nasdaq is showing relative weakness, weighing on the broader indexes.
Recent MAG-7 earnings remind us: magnificent is performance, not potential. Investors vote with buy/sell tickets, not hope.
Cycle Day 2 — The Real Work Begins
Cycle Day 1 delivered the reset.
Cycle Day 2 delivers discipline.
The task is simple, rarely glamorous:
• Stabilize price action
• Seek acceptance between buyers and sellers
• Build a base, not a headline
Let balance do the heavy lifting before the next rally attempt.
No fireworks required.
No hero trades demanded.
✅ If structure holds → the path higher stays open
⚠️ If not → market renegotiates, same rules, next session
Cycle Day 2 isn’t about excitement.
It’s about earning the next push.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 — Trading Focus
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Hold Control
Acceptance north of 24,990 ±10 opens upside to:
• 25,180 → 25,275 → 25,325
Momentum remains constructive while price holds above the pivot zone.
🔴 Bear Case — Downside Pressure
Acceptance south of 24,990 ±10 keeps downside pressure alive:
• 24,880 → 24,850 → 24,785
Failure to reclaim the pivot triggers controlled reset, not panic.
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 25,347
• PVA Low Edge: 24,960
• Prior POC: 25,072
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQH
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN