Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
1https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets worked on balancing out recent swings during this session, closing with a firm bid near highs of day. Prior range was 134 handles on 2.090M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4280. Price is currently backing off from settlement during overnight activity, but still within prior value zone. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4335, initially targets 4350 – 4355 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4335, initially targets 4325 – 4320 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4373 PVA Low Edge = 4323 Prior POC = 4368
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4339; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4272; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4295; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4422; 10 Day Average True Range; 112; VIX: 32
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 13750. Price is currently backing off from settlement during overnight trade activity. Volatility remains elevated, so expectation is for continued wide swings as market searches for balance. Prior range was 609 handles on 745k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14130, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14180 – 14200 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14130, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14096– 14080 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14208 PVA Low Edge = 13957 Prior POC = 14080
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14268; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13688; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13916; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14505; 10 Day Average True Range: 508; VIX: 32
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN