Markets
Investors witnessed a big comeback for stocks on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.5% and 3.6%, respectively, though cautious sentiment is lingering due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While U.S. equity indices snapped a four-session losing streak, and energy prices eased, stock futures fell again overnight, down about 1% at the time of writing. Some are calling yesterday’s rally a dead-cat bounce, while others are strongly buying into the dip, but whatever the case may be, traders should know that there is still plenty of volatility out there.
More volatility: Crude futures on Wednesday plunged by the most since November after the UAE’s ambassador to Washington said it would urge OPEC+ members to boost oil output.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00PM Treasury Statement
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Early CD1 Low (4152) established a secure base from which a strong persistent rally unfolded for this Cycle Day, fulfilling upside range objectives. Prior range was 146 handles on 1.551M, contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 would be ‘back n fill” consolidation price action to balance out prior volatile sessions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4230, initially targets 4250 – 4260 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4230, initially targets 4217 – 4213 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4293 PVA Low Edge = 4250 Prior POC = 4277
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4350; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4142; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4221; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4251; 10 Day Average True Range 130; VIX: 33
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Following prior session’s strong rally, expectation is for a CD2 “normal” ‘back n fill’ balancing day. Prior range was 632 handles on 639k contracts traded. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13747 PVA Low Edge = 13551 Prior POC = 13722
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13600, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13665 – 13705 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13600, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13525 – 13495 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14055; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13242; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13463; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13658; 10 Day Average True Range: 531; VIX: 33
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN