Markets
Equities notched a green session on Thursday, while stock index futures rose by another 0.3% overnight, though caution still reigns high in the current trading environment. If bond yields are still part of the equation, the rate on the 10-year Treasury tacked on another 6 bps to trade at 1.67%. Markets could also be driven by a number of end-of-quarter trades, though analysts noted that some headlines were mostly supportive for stocks.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 International trade in goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Wide range variation day as price was in search of stabilized balance all session, but could not agree on an acceptable level, creating a wide value area zone.(3888 – 3855). Prior range was 66.25 handles on explosive 2.248M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is trading above prior value near previous high (3909.50). Three-Day Cycle Statistic is fulfilled, so today is marked as a “wild-card”, with freedom to roam about the range. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3910, initially targets 3925 – 3927 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3910, initially targets 3898 – 3888 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3888 PVA Low Edge = 3855 Prior POC = 3865
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3948; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3874; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3916; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3898; 10 Day Average True Range 48; VIX: 19.75
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has relinquished overnight rally and is trading near prior Value Area Low (12708). Three-Day Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled during overnight trade, but still needs to prove itself during RTH Session. Prior range was 250 handles on 737k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 1820 PVA Low Edge = 12708 Prior POC = 12736
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12735, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12785 – 12820 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12735, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12708 – 12665 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12983; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12611; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12908; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12784; 10 Day Average True Range: 270; VIX: 19.75
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN