Markets
The market will get some insight into how much the consumer is participating in the economic recovery with the latest retail sales numbers today. S&P futures (SPX), Nasdaq futures (NDX:IND) and Dow futures (INDU) are all in the green.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
The Commerce Department will release March retail sales at 8:30 AM ET. Economists, on average, are looking for a strong rebound, with sales rising 5.9%, compared with a 3% drop in February. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are forecast to rise 5%, reversing a 2.7% decline the month before. Retail sales have posted gains in just four months since the lockdown measures took hold last year, the most recent being a 5.3% gain for January.
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:30 Fed’s Bostic: “The Atlantic’s Progress Report: The State of the Black Community”
2:00 PM Fed’s Daly Speech
4:00 PM Fed’s Mester: “Economic Inclusion”
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Early push up to Penetration Levels got rejected, reversing price back down. Violation of key support (4132) opened trap door for Value Area Rule (VAR) fulfillment to 4115, where buyers responded. Prior range was 31 handles on 1.493M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price has rebounded back to prior POC (4137) during overnight trade. Normal for CD2 is balancing / consolidation albeit within a wide range to absorb recent price activity. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4137, initially targets 4146 – 4148 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4137, initially targets 4132 – 4130 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4142 PVA Low Edge = 4122 Prior POC = 4137
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4149; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4110; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4123; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4146; 10 Day Average True Range 30; VIX: 16.75
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has recovered half of prior decline and is currently trading within prior value zone during overnight trade. Prior Range was 256.25 handles on 556k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14005 PVA Low Edge = 13840 Prior POC = 13898
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13898, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13968 – 14000 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13898, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13862 – 13840 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13976; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13720; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13862; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14138; 10 Day Average True Range: 187; VIX: 16.75
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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