Markets (Top Stories)
Snapshot: Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to have declined 4.8% Y/Y in the first quarter, according to data from Refinitiv, marking the second consecutive drop in year-over-year earnings growth. While that would translate into the first “earnings recession” since the pandemic, it could be somewhat of a good sign. Inflation is coming down, which is weighing on pricing and profit margins, while the economy is still growing with many firms reporting strong top-line figures. A bigger problem could arise if executives start issuing downbeat forecasts or companies surprise investors with some serious or severe quarterly losses.
Economic Calendar
8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
1:00 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-Day Cycle was fulfilled, as early decline found responsive buyers at 4150, consolidated midday, then staged an impressive rally, closing on highs of the day as well as fulfilling 4180 target. Both upper and lower range targets were clearly outlined in DTS 4-17-23. Prior range was 32 handles on 1.259M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4146. Momentum is favoring the Bulls as price is extending yesterday’s late day rally, currently trading 4195 pre-RTH. Our main objective is to stay in alignment with dominant force. Simple Easy Plan!. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4175, initially targets 4195 – 4205 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4175, initially targets 4155 – 4150 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4173 PVA Low Edge = 4155 Prior POC 4164
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4215; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4152; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4162; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4212; 10 Day Average True Range 44; VIX: 16
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-Day Cycle was fulfilled, as early decline found responsive buyers at 13090, consolidated midday, then staged an impressive rally, closing on highs of the day as well as fulfilling 13220 target. Prior range was 141 handles on 536k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 12997. Momentum is favoring the Bulls as price is extending yesterday’s late day rally, currently trading 13268 pre-RTH. Our main objective is to stay in alignment with dominant force. Simple Easy Plan!. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13220, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13285– 13305 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13220, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13195 – 13175 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13195 PVA Low Edge = 13120 Prior POC = 13170
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13366; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13076; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13146; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13295; 10 Day Average True Range: 206; VIX: 16
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN