Trade Strategy 4.26.16

Markets

The FOMC is today scheduled to start the first of a two-day meeting where it’s expected to hold rates at 0.25-0.5%. As ever, there will be as much interest in the Fed’s statement as in the decision itself, with all and sundry looking for clues as to what bank officials might decide in their next meetings. Optimism about the economy could signal a rate rise in the near future but pessimism could indicate there will be no such thing anytime soon. Janet Yellen wasn’t particularly helpful when she said recently that the U.S. is “on a solid course” but that “we’re suffering a drag from the global economy.”

In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 17353. Hong Kong +0.5% to 21407. China +0.3% to 9648. India +1.3% to 26007.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.8% to $42.98. Gold -0.4% to $1235.45.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.91%.

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
FOMC meeting begins
8:30 Durable Goods
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $34B, 10-Year Note Auction
PTG Trading
Monday’s trade session was textbook Cycle Day 2 (CD2) as price retested and temporarily violated Cycle Day 1 Low (2075.00), only to recover sharply into the closing bell. There remains plenty of upside rally potential, however being Cycle Day 3 trade action could go either way. Overall trade advantage remains in the bullish camp.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…IFFY…Bulls must clear and convert CD2 High (2091.50) to expand upon this cycle’s rally. IF this occurs upside targets 2095.00 – 2097.80. Above this zone opens potential to reach 2106 – 2109 zone.
***FOMC Meeting and plenty of high profile earning releases (AAPL) may act to keep price contained.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2097.80; LOD Range Projection = 2074.95; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2105.84; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2062.45; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2075.00; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2084.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2108.96 10 Day Average True Range = 16.30.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Bulls must clear and convert CD2 High (2091.50) to expand upon this cycle’s rally. IF this occurs upside targets 2095.00 – 2097.80. Above this zone opens potential to reach 2106 – 2109 zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert CD2 High (2091.50) keeps price contained within recent 20 handle range (2091 – 2071). Violation of lower range opens door to deeper downside break targeting 2062.45.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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