Markets (Top Stories)
The U.S. labor market appears to be easing, according to latest jobs data, but investors are awaiting the payrolls report to be released tomorrow for further proof that the Federal Reserve could end its rate-hiking cycle. Jobless claims, expected later today, will also be closely watched. Note that Good Friday is not a federal holiday. The consensus estimate is for nonfarm payroll to increase 239K in March vs. +311K in February, with unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%. The payrolls report will be the last one ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting in May. Fed funds futures show an ~59% chance of no hike and ~42% probability of a 25-basis point increase.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Fed’s Bullard Speech
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Sellers dominate this cycle as prices dropped below CD1 Low down to Violation Levels where buyers stood ground. Prior range was 36 handles on 1.423M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading near CD1 Low (4115) and must trade above this level during RTH to secure a Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic. Shortened holiday trading week with tomorrow (Good Friday) as markets are closed, may see end of week jostling for final positioning. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4115, initially targets 4125 – 4130 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4115, initially targets 4105 – 4110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4122 PVA Low Edge = 4107 Prior POC = 4116
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4150; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4074; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4133; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4168; 10 Day Average True Range 74; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Sellers dominate this cycle as prices dropped below CD1 Low down to Violation Levels where buyers stood ground. Prior range was 241 handles on 585k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading below CD1 Low (13168.25) and must trade above this level during RTH to secure a Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic. Shortened holiday trading week with tomorrow (Good Friday) as markets are closed, may see end of week jostling for final positioning. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13090– 13120 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12985 – 12965 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13120 PVA Low Edge = 13007 Prior POC = 13045
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13207; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12858; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13196; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13246; 10 Day Average True Range: 272; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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