Markets
Futures movement overnight suggests another down day for the U.S. stock market as inflation fears continue to weigh on sentiment and prompt investors to cut exposure to riskier assets. At the time of writing, contracts linked to the Nasdaq are 1.3% lower, while the Dow and S&P 500 are off 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
1:00 PM Results of $27B, 20-Year Bond Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
S&P 500
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): This day unfolded as a “normal” Cycle Day 1 as the anticipated decline did unfold, fulfilling the Average Decline Objective of 4122. Program Selling persisted all session and was capped-off with a Market on Close (MOC) Sell Imbalance of $1.3 Billion. Range was 68 handles on 1.249M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal price action for this cycle day following a directional trend, is for initial continuation of the previous momentum (down), then finding a stabilization zone to consolidate recent activity. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4112, initially targets 4132 – 4140 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4112, initially targets 4096 – 4093 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >>Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
PVA High Edge = 4163 PVA Low Edge = 4138 Prior POC = 4159
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4139; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4066; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4148; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4170; 10 Day Average True Range 56; VIX: 23
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for this cycle day is to find some stabilization following previous CD1 decline session. Prior range was 254 handles on 434k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13391 PVA Low Edge = 13305 Prior POC = 13333
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13178, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13228 – 13345 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13178, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13153 – 13138 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13283; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12962; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13290; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13452; 10 Day Average True Range: 261; VIX: 23
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN