Markets
Expectations are rising for a rate hike next month after Philly Fed President Patrick Harker reinforced the central bank’s message that it’s getting ready to act now that the U.S. economy has recovered from a weak winter. “I can easily see the possibility of two or three rate hikes over the remainder of the year,” he told an audience in Philadelphia. “If the data comes in… I think a June rate increase is appropriate.” Markets are also awaiting this week’s main event – a speech from Janet Yellen on Friday.
In Asia, Japan -0.9% to 16499. Hong Kong +0.1% to 19830. China -0.8% to 2822. India +0.3% to 25305.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +0.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.3% to $47.94. Gold -0.7% to $1242.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.83%
Economic Calendar
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
PTG Trading
Monday’s Session was quiet narrow range “inside day”, as volumes and range compressed. This action typically leads to expansion with the path of least resistance remains for an upside resolution.
Overnight trade successfully tested the Cycle Day 1 Low (2043.50) and this cycle’s rally has begun…Price is currently trading at high of overnight session (2053.50).
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Having successfully tested CD1 Low (2043.50), this cycle’s rally has started. Price will need to clear and convert 2056 – 58 zone to upper support. Should this occur upside objective is zone between 2063 – 2067.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2067.00; LOD Range Projection: 2031.12; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2064.17; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2031.88; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2043.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2043.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2067.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 21.88
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2056.00) to support, upside objective target 2063 – 2064 zone HOD ATR Range Projection and CD2 Max Penetration Level respectively. Average 3 Day Cycle Rally Target measures 2067.00.
Scenario 2: Violation of CD1 Low (2043.50) would be Sign of Weakness (SOW) and would potentially challenge the bullish thesis…IF this occurs, THEN lower targets are 2036.50 SPOT, followed by 2033 – 31 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN