Markets
The growth trade could be returning as bond yields keep falling, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury falling another 2 bps to 1.48%. The moves helped propel the Nasdaq Composite upward on Monday, closing at a record high as cyclicals took the back seat. Overnight, contracts linked to the index inched higher, while Dow and S&P 500 futures were hovering around the flatline.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
FOMC meeting begins
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 20-Year Bond Auction
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price consolidated throughout the session ending strong, as price vaulted higher into the closing bell, notching new all-time high. Prior range was 24 handles on 860k contracts exchanged. Pace of Contract Rollover has accelerated to 60% completion.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-day cycle objective (4256) has been fulfilled during overnight. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4248, initially targets 4256 – 4260 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4248, initially targets 4238 – 4236 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4236 PVA Low Edge = 4225 Prior POC = 4228
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4270; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4231; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4231; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4256; 10 Day Average True Range 27; VIX: 16.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Statistic as price was storing throughout prior session, with a firm bid during overnight trade. Prior range was 169 handles on 292k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. Pace of Contract Rollover is currently 50% complete.
PVA High Edge = 14055 PVA Low Edge = 13992 Prior POC = 14010
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14126, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14158 – 14180 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14126, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14099 – 14060 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14252; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14006; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13971; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14210; 10 Day Average True Range: 148; VIX: 16.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN